Later today unbeaten Kazakh prospect Ali Akhmedov (15-0, 11) [Али Ахмедов] will defend his WBC International Silver Super Middleweight title, with a bout against Andrew Hernandez (20-7-2, 9) at Madison Square Garden. The bout has been picked up as one that UK gamblers can bet on, though the bookies see it very much a mismatch.
The rising Kazakh is best priced at 1/33 to win whilst the challenger is available at around 33/1 if you look around on the spread betting websites, that's the same price as the draw with a number of online bookmakers.
Where the interest comes in such a perceived mismatch is the method of victory, Though here the market makes the mismatch look even more obvious, with Akhmedov inside the distance best priced at 2/7, whilst he is 9/2 to take the victory with a decision. The bookies do not expect him to face any kind of a test at all here. Hernandez by stoppage is available at 22/1 and a decision by the challenger is up there at a staggering 66/1.
Interestingly the bout is 2/7 to not go the distance, which covers not only an early Akhmedov win but also a technical draw or the the surprise Hernandez stoppage win. Whilst the fight isn't expected to last the distance, you can get 5/4 on the bout ending in the first 5 rounds and 8/5 on it ending in the second half.
WBA Inter-Continental Light Middleweight champion Israil Madrimov (3-0, 3) [Исроил Мадримов] will be defending his title later today as he takes on rugged Mexican challenger Alejandro Barrera (29-5, 18) at the legendary Madison Square Garden. Despite only fighting his 4th professional bout Madrimov has already built up a serious reputation as an incredible fighter with huge potential, and many fans are already tipping him to be a future world champion.
The reputation of Madrimov shows in the odds for the fight, with UK book makers making the unbeaten Uzbek an almost unbackable favourite to keep ahold of his gold, with odds of 1/25 on a win, by any method. The upset has been priced at a huge 22/1, with Barrera being given next to no chance against Madrimov. The draw, for those interested, is a huge 37/1.
What's more interesting than the "To Win" market for this fight is the method of victory market, which is where we see much more insight into how the bookies see the fight going.
Madrimov is priced at 1/6 to become only the second man to take out Bareera, who was stopped by current unified Welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. As for the decision, Madrimov is 9/2 to take his first victory on the score-cards. The upset KO win for Barrera is best priced at 25/1, and would be regarded as a genuine shocked, though a decision for Barrera is even higher priced, at 66/1.
Unsurprisingly the bout isn't expected to go the distance, and it's 1/6 to be stopped inside 12 rounds and 5/1 to go the distance. The general view with the UK bookmakers is that the Mexican will survive to around the mid way point, with the over/under on 5.5 rounds being the interesting one. Over 5.5 rounds is 4/5 whilst under is 10/11.
Tomorrow we'll see Kazakh icon Gennady Golovkin's (39-1-1, 35) [Геннадий Геннадьевич Головкин] attempted to reclaim the IBF Middleweight title as he takes on Ukrainian fighter Sergey Derevyanchenko (13-1, 10) at Madison Square in New York.
The bout looks an interesting one on paper, and is obviously a bout that has caught the attention of the bookies, with a number of bookies offering odds on the bout.
The UK bookies have priced Golovkin a very clear favourite. The Kazakh is best priced at 2/9 at the time of writing whilst Derevyanchenko is a 4/1 under-dog. The draw, for those interested, is best priced at 33/1 and is widely available at 22/1.
The method of victory market is more interesting in many ways. Golovkin is best priced at 13/10 to score a stoppage win, which would be Derevyanchenko's first stoppage loss, and the Kazakh is priced at 6/4 to score the decision win. Derevyanchenko on the other hand is 8/1 to win a decision and 12/1 to take a stoppage, which would be a huge shock given how solid Golovkin's chin has proven to be over the years.
One thing worth noting is that the bout is priced at 19/20 to go the scheduled 12 rounds and evens to not go the distance.
Whilst we do see a Golovkin win, it will be very interesting to see how he gets it.
Related - Golovkin and Derevyanchenko clash for IBF crown!
On Saturday night in the US Batyr Akhmedov (7-0, 6) and Mario Barrios (24-0, 16) clash in a mouth watering match up for the WBA "regular" Light Welterweight title. On paper the bout is one of the best ones this weekend, and despite neither man being a huge name the fight is a great opportunity for both men to knock down the door and open up bigger opportunities in the near future, such as a bout with the winner of the upcoming WBSS final.
The interesting match up has interesting odds, with the bookies struggling to split the two fighters.
The favourite, albeit slight, is Barrios at 4/6 to win, whilst Akhmedov is a 6/4 under-dog. Interestingly draw is available at 22/1, which is shorter than we typically see for a draw.
Although the "To win" market is pretty interesting here, it's certainly not the market that stands out. Instead that's the "Method of victory" market, which is really interesting.The most likely outcome, according to the bookies, is a decision for Barrios at 7/4. A stoppage for Barrios is 11/4 whilst a stoppage for Akhmedov is similarly priced, at 7/2. The outlier is an Akhmedov decision, which is 9/2, and although the outlier it wouldn't be a huge surprise for him to get it.
Interestingly the bout has a very hard to call market, the "To go the Distance" one. The bout is available at evens to go the 12 rounds, and 11/10 to not go 12.
(All odds accurate at the time of writing)
Related - Akhmedov and Barrios face off for WBA secondary belt!
Tomorrow we'll see WBO Flyweight champion Kosei Tanaka (13-0, 7) [田中恒成] make his second defense of the Flyweight title, as he goes up against confident mandatory challenger Jonathan Gonzalez (22-2-1, 13) from Puerto Rico.
Despite Tanaka struggling at the weigh in, and seemingly having results in his medical that may suggest minor dehydration from making the 112lb weight limit, he is heavily favoured by the British bookies.
The Japanese fighter, who is already a 3 weight champion, is currently priced at 1/8 to win tomorrow whilst Gonzalez, who has taken to Japan like a duck to water, is 5/1.
The draw, for those interested, is 22/1.
Sadly there are no alternatives markets available in the UK for this bout, but given Tanaka's rumoured weight problems we do wonder if some international bookies are carrying odds on a Gonzalez TKO win.
Related - Tanaka returns for next defense, faces "Bomba" Gonzalez
(Image courtesy of boxingnews.jp)
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