This coming weekend we'll likely see the end of one of the most personal rivalries in modern day boxing, as Mexican star Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (57-2-2, 39) and Kazakh icon Gennadiy Golovkin (42-1-1, 37) meet in their third, and likely final, bout. Like the previous two the bout is expected to be a thriller between two incredibly talented, well rounded fighters, with different styles, but the same hunger to prove themselves and the same desire to take home the win over their greatest nemesis.
The two men, who's careers will always be linked, first fought in September 2017, with Golovkin holding 3 of the 4 major world titles. That bout saw the men fight to a much disputed draw, with many feeling that Canelo had been protected from a loss by the judges, especially Adalaide Byrd who some how gave Golovkin just 2 rounds with an awful 118-110 card for Canelo. The two were scheduled to rematch the following May but a failed drugs test by Alvarez saw the bout being pushed back to September 2018 when Canelo controversially defeated Golovkin to claim the WBA and WBC Middleweigjt titles. Since that bout the two men went their separate ways, though it always seemed like a third was, ultimately, in their destiny. Since losing to Canelo we've seen Golovkin go 4-0 (3), he has looked like he has lost a gear, though still had enough to beat top competition in the form of Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Ryota Murata, and not just reclaim world honours at Middleweight but also unifying the IBF and WBA "super" titles. Canelo on the other hand has gone 7-1 (5). Along the way he claimed the WBO Light Heavyweight title and unified all 4 world titles at Super Middleweight, before losing last time out, at Super Middleweight, to Dmitriy Bivol. That loss was his first since 2013, when he lost to Floyd Mayweather Jr, and much like Mayweather Jr. For this bout, unlike the other two, the fight will take place at Super Middleweight. The move in weight could be an interesting factor. It's the weight class that has seen Canelo control in recent years, with notable wins over Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant, to secure all 4 titles, but also a weight that he will be dropping back down to, which is rarely an easy task. Likewise for Golovkin the bout will be his first at 168lbs, though he has had catch weight fights above 160lbs early in his career, and it will be very interesting to see what he looks like at the higher weight. In the ring not a lot needs saying about either man, afterall they have both been fighting at the top level for over a decade and we suspect everyone who follows the sport will have seen a lot of both men. Canbelo is a smooth punching, intelligent pressure fighter, with a good boxing brain, solid power and decent work rate. He isn't the quickest, the most powerful, or the strongest, but he's a smart fighter who has under-rated defense, excellent offense, and lovely combination punching, especially up close. At range he can look poor, and a fighter who keeps him chasing can make him look poor, but his pressure tends to get to fighters, sooner or later. As for Golovkin he's a defensively limited fighter, but someone who has rocks for hands, a very good work rate, a stunning chin, and can land brutal shots to head or body. Sadly Golovkin has slowed down, a lot, from the fighter he once was, and looked only a shadow of himself at times against Murata. Coming in to this we don't expect to see anything new from the men involved. Aged 40 isn't suddenly going to develop into a defensive master and at 32 Canelo, with 61 fights to his name, we don't expect to see anything new from Canelo either. Saying that we don't expect this fight to fully look like their previous two, which were instant classics. We, sadly, expect Golovkin to again look old. Especially early on, and that will work to Canelo's strength, with Alvarez being an excellent body puncher. It seemed that Murata hurt Golovkin with a body shot in their bout, and Alvarez might not have the single punch power of Murata, but places shots better, is a better combination puncher and is clearly quicker and sharper. With that in mind we expect to see Canelo going to the body early, landing there a lot in the first 3 or 4 rounds, and take gas out of Golovkin's tyres. Later on we expect to see Golovkin begin to show what he can do, but not have the intensity needed to make a major impact, before slowing down again as Canelo gets his second wind and does enough to earn a clear decision, if not a very late stoppage against a tired Golvokin. Although we do favour Canelo here, we do expect the move up in weight will be a good one for Golovkin, and perhaps something he should have done in 2019, following his loss to Canelo. We can't help but feel his frame would have suited the division well, and bouts against the likes of Callum Smith, Caleb Plant and Billy Joe Saunders would have been interesting for him at 168lbs. Prediction - UD12 Canelo
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On August 31st we'll see WBC Minimumweight champion Panya Pradabsri (38-1, 23), aka Petchmanee Kokietgym, seek his third defense as he takes on former Japanese national champion Norihito Tanaka (20-8, 10) [田中教仁] in Nakhon Ratchasima. The bout, which was made when Tanaka replaced fellow Japanese fighter Tsubasa Koura for the opportunity a few weeks ago, is potentially the final one in the career of Tanaka, who knows it's now or never for him at the top level.
The once beaten champion, aged 31, is arguably the best fighter in the division, though there is a strong argument to be had that that honour lies with either with WBA Knockout CP Freshmart. He earned that honour in 2020 when he beat the previously unbeaten Wanheng Menayothin to claim the WBC title, in what was a career defining win and one that put him on the map of many fans who hadn't heard of him before. Just beating the then 54-0 Wanheng meant a lot, and it's a win that will likely go down as the best win of his career when Panya eventually retires. Sadly outside of that win, and another in a rematch against Wanheng, there is little of note on his record. His best "other" wins are against the likes of Jaysever Abcede, Jerry Tomogdan, Dexter Alimento and Robert Onggocan. Despite having a paper thin 38-1 record there is no doubting Panya's ability in the ring. He is a talented boxer-puncher, with good hand speed, nasty body shots, and a good understanding of the ring. He could, and probably should, have done much more with his career and as mentioned he is arguably the best at 105lbs right now. He can box, he can punch, he can move and at times it looks like he can pretty much do anything. He does however sometimes flatter to deceive and can make tactical errors, such as fighting the wrong fight against Wanheng, with both of their fights being very close, and following fighters rather than cutting the ring down, an issue that we saw against Danai Ngiabphukhiaw last November. The Japanese challenger, who's now 37 years old, has had a rollercoaster like career with a number of ups and downs. He began his career 9-0 and despite going 11-8 since then there is no doubting his achievements, including his Japanese title 2in in 2019, when he stopped Shin Ono. There is also no questioning the talent he's gone in against, with losses to Kenichi Horikawa, Akira Yaegashi, Ryoichi Taguchi, Tsubasa Koura and most recently Knockout CP Freshmart. He has held Japanese honours and managed to fight for world and Regional honours during his career. Sadly though at the age of 37, and with out a fight since the end of 2020, it's hard to say just what he has in the tank. At his best Tanaka was a sharp, awkward and tricky fighter who used good hand speed and movement to land and get out of range. He understands the ring and range and where to move, how to move and how to land without taking much in return. Sadly though at the age of 37 and with extra ring rust we see that speed slowing, the timing going and with his lack of physicality, power and size he is going to really struggle to put up a legitimate challenge for Panya. He might ask questions, at times, of the champion, but it's very hard to imagine him really testing Panya. We expect Tanaka to have moments early on, but as the rounds go on those moments will become less and less regular, with Tanaka eventually deciding to just survive to the final bell, knowing that he's too far behind to really make a fight of things. Prediction - UD12 Panya Earlier this year we saw the long reign WBC Featherweight title reign of Gary Russell Jr, one of the sports premier talents yet most frustrating fighters, come to a surprise end as he was beaten by Filipino fighter Mark Magsayo (24-0, 16). This coming weekend Magsayo looks to build on that career defining victory as he takes on former WBC Super Bantamweight champion Rey Vargas (35-0, 22), in a very tough first defense.
Prior to his win over Russell Jr the talented Magsayo had been earmarked as a special talent. The Filipino, dubbed "Magnifico", had been hyped by the Filipino boxing press straight off the bat and ALA Gym seemed to be grooming him as the net face of their iconic promotion. Sadly though his ascent was a slow one, and despite the early hype his development seemed slow. He debuted in 2013 and beat former contender Chris Avalos in 2016, but then seemed to stall with no significant steps up in class whilst under ALA, who he was with for another 3 fights. He would then split from ALA and spent the entire of 2018 out of the ring, before restarting his career in 2019, picking up a notable win against Pungluang Sor Singyu later in the year. His career really changed in 2020 when he linked up with Freddie Roach and based himself in the US, where he has had his last 4 fights. The first of those was a very close win over gritty under-dog Rigoberto Hermosillo, he was also tested in the third of those bouts, a 10th round come from behind KO win over Julio Ceja, before sneaking past Russell Jr this past January. In the ring Magsayo, much like Russell Jr, is a frustrating fighter. He is an undeniable talent. The Filipino is a wonderful natural talent, with good hand speed, good movement, and good size. He is also an incredibly determined fighter, with real resiliency, and his wins over Hermosillo and Ceja showed that he has incredible desire to success. Also, despite not being much of a puncher, he can certainly hurt fighters, and his KO of Ceja was a brutal KO, showing him to his hard enough to make a genuine impact, when he lands clean. He has the tools be a fixture on the top of the division for years to come, and aged just 27 he is still improving. He will however need to improve, significantly, if he's to keep the title, and establish his reign. For all his talent he is a very frustrating fighter, with questionable stamina, a lack of a true boxing brain. He switches off a lot, often through the middle of the bout, losing a lot of momentum and control as a result. He is also someone who dislikes pressure, often being put into something of a negative and defensive shell against pressure, and despite being solid defensively, he doesn't appear to have a world class chin, having been down several times already in his career and given the level of fighters he's now expected to face that chin could well be his downfall. Vargas first made a name for himself in the amateurs, competing at the 2009 World Championships. The following year he began his campaign as a professional, and reeled off 6 wins before the year was over. He would remain relatively active early on and claimed his first title in early 2012, winning the IBF Youth Super Bantamweight title. It was at Super Bantamweight where he would really establish himself over the years that followed. Having ended 2016 with a 29-0 record, including notable wins against the likes of Alexander Muñoz, Christian Esquivel and Sylvester Lopez, he finally got his shot at a world title as he faced Gavin McDonnell for the vacant WBC Super Featherweight title in England. The bout saw Vargas dominate McDonnell en route to a Majority Decision, due to a terrible scorecard from the consistently poor Ian John-Lewis. He would go on to defend that title 5 times, beating the likes of Ronny Rios, Oscar Negrete, Azat Hovhannisyan and Tomoki Kameda. Sadly though a broken leg suffered in 2020 saw Vargas sitting on the side-lines, for well over a year, before returning in November 2021, and beating Leonardo Baez in a bout at Featherweight. That bout was essentially a tune up for a shot at the WBC title, for which he was the mandatory challenger, and loomed in shadows for the winner of Magsayo's bout against Russell Jr. Vargas is as far from your typical Mexican boxer as you can get. The tall, rangy framed fighter isn't the macho driven tough guy we think of when we think of Mexican fighters, but instead he his a cerebral boxer, using footwork, busy jabs, and his physical tools. He keeps opponents at range, he handcuffs them with volume, and he refuses to be drawn into a war. He is very much a fighter who was groomed as a pure boxer, in part due to a good amateur career. His style can be hugely frustrating to watch, but it's also incredibly effective, and is the epitome of hit and don't get hit. Interestingly he started his career looking like something of a puncher, stopping 15 of his first 16, but has now had just 7 stoppage in his last 19 bouts going the distance in his last 7 and 10 times in his last 12. Despite that he has scored notable decision wins over the likes of McDonnell, Rios, Negrete, Hovhannisyan and Kameda showing his boxing skills to be excellent at the highest level. Technically he may be the best boxer at 126lbs, and it's hard to imagine anyone having an easy time with him, with potentially Emanuel Navarrete being the only fighter who would be strongly favoured against him. With both fighters entering this one unbeaten, and both being very high level boxers, this is a really interesting match up. The bout is a chance for Magsayo to build on a career best win, show he belongs in and around the top of the division, and didn't just get lucky Vs Russell Jr, who fought much of the bout with an injury. Likewise it's a chance for Vargas to become a 2-division champion, and complete a remarkable comeback from his broken leg to world champion. Technically the bout will be fought at a high level. Both are pure boxers, and the bout should be a very skilful one. Sadly for Magsayo however we get the feeling that Vargas's style will be a total nightmare for him. We expect to see Vargas establishing control behind his long arms, his quick footwork and his busy work rate. We don't expect to see him hurting Magsayo physically, but mentally force Magsayo to question himself, and over 12 rounds Magsayo will simply not be able to change the flow of the fight, at least not long enough, to over-come Vargas. We expect Vargas to take a round or two to get a read on Magsayo, who does start pretty fast, but by round 4 the challenger will have figured out his man and will go on to control the middle and later portion of the fight to take a clear decision, and the WBC title. Magsayo's only real hope is to force the pace, take risks and land a bomb, as he did on Ceja. Sadly we don't see him doing that here. We don't imagine he will even come close to landing a bomb, with Vargas simply being too good and too smart for him. Prediction - UD12 Vargas By William Ridgard
Jesse "Bam “Rodriguez (15-0) makes his first defense of his WBC Super Flyweight Championship against the experienced and dangerous Wisaksil Wangek (50-5-1) (aka Srisaket Sor Rungvisai) , who is famous for beating and KOing P4P king and all-time great in Roman “Choclatitio” Gonzalez (51-3). This is a brilliant crossroads fight between a hungry young prospect in Jesse Rodriguez and the veteran in Wangek, who is vying to prove he still has the capabilities to become world champion at the age of 35. This is another great fight in a division that just keeps on giving. The keys to victory for Bam are to use his brilliant footwork and dance around Wangek, landing his key shots via his brilliant pivots which allows him to create angles and land shots. A great example of this was in his last fight against Carlos Cuadras, where he dropped him in the 3rd round via his brilliant footwork which led to him landing a flush uppercut. The keys to victory for Wangek will be to let Jesse feel his power early and make him hesitant to engage. A weakness in his fight with Cuadras was that Jesse sometimes looked weak to the body, so if he also targets that area, it could make him less likely to engage and could lead to him winning the rounds. Overall, I believe that Bam will outpoint Wangek in a close fight and will hopefully highlight how good Jesse Rodriguez is. Alternatively, it could be too much too soon for the youngest world champion in boxing, and this could lead to the experience of Wangek prevailing. November 7th 2019 will long be remembered for giving us one of the best Bantamweight bouts in recent memory, as Japanese star Naoya Inoue (22-0, 19) scored a unanimous decision over Filipino legend Nonito Donaire (42-6, 38) to unify the WBA and IBF Bantamweight titles, along with the Ring Magazine title and win the Bantamweight edition of the WBSS. The bout, later dubbed the "Drama in Saitama" was an instant classic, with everything a bout could want. It has intense respect between the two fighters, it had drama as Inoue suffered the first cut of his career, and was later diagnosed with a broken orbital and a fractured nose, and controversy with Ernie Sharif helping Donaire survive the penultimate round of the bout. The bout, later named the Ring Magazine Fight of the year, was brilliant and helped to enhance the reputations of both men.
This coming Tuesday we get to do it all again, in one of the most anticipated rematches of 2022. This time the bout will not only be for the WBA, IBF and Ring Magazine titles, but also the WBC title, with only the WBO title being missed on what would have unified all the Bantamweight belts together, for the first time in the 4 belt era. Since their first bout we've not seen as much of Inoue as we would have liked, with the Monster's career stalling in part due to the injuries he suffered against Donaire, and in part due to the Pandemic, which made it nearly impossible to stage big bouts in Japan during 2020 and 2021. As a result Inoue has fought just 3 times in that time period and none of the bouts were huge ones against the divisional elite. Instead they were his Las Vegas debut in October 2020 against the capable Jason Moloney, a mandatory against the underwhelming Michael Dasmarinas and a homecoming defense against the brave but massive over-matched Aran Dipaen. There had been plans for a bout against John Riel Casimero, but that was cancelled due to the pandemic and never re-arranged, unfortunately, before Casimero was stripped of the WBO title. Notably however the inactivity likely served Inoue well, allowing him a lot of time to heal up from the injuries he suffered to Donaire. He wasn't forced to rush back from what is a serious injury, and was instead able to take his time, and when he returned against Jason Moloney almost a year after that clash with Donaire he looked 100% the fighter he had been previously. He seemed very much the Monster we all know and love. As we all know Inoue, arguably the face of Japanese boxing over the last few years, is indeed the Monster. He's one of the few fighters in the sport who really can do it all. He can play the boxer, the boxer-puncher, the counter-puncher and the pressure fighter, and has the tools in his arsenal to really pick and choose what he wants to do and when he wants to do it. He has brutal power, which has carried up from Light Flyweight to Bantamweight and is likely to carry up at least another division, if not two. He has incredible handspeed, impressive footspeed and worryingly for he also has an incredibly quick boxing brain. That boxing brain sees him seeing things before they even look to be there, including counter opportunities and defensive gaps that he can exploit. He's an offensive freak but is also a defensively under-rated fighter, with only Donaire really landing much of note on him since his 2012 debut, and has an incredible jaw, that saw withstand Donaire's much patented left hook. Aged 39 Nonito Donaire should be retired, he should have his feet up, looking back on a great in ring career and either working with the new generation of fighters or using his brain as an analyst. Or even just walking away from boxing and enjoying one of his many hobbies away from the ring. Instead he's proving that a fighter who looks after themselves can give father time a bit of a fight, and still remain one of the most dangerous fighters in the sport. And when we talk about Donaire he really is dangerous, and has a very misleading KO ratio, of just 58.33%, despite being one of the heaviest handed fighters in the sport on a pound for pound basis. His power is legitimate and as he's gotten older, and lost some speed, he's adapted. He's not the same fighter he was, as a young Donaire was sharp, quick and destructive, but he's altered his in ring style to be deliberate, and has moved from a counter-puncher of sorts, to more of a stalking monster looking to take opponents heads off when he lands. Donaire, who has won titles from Flyweight to Featherweight, is a first ballot Hall of Famer when he retires, and his resume reads like a who's who of who, of the lower weights from the last 15 years. Wins over Vic Darchinyan, Moruti Mthalane, Hernan Marquez, Fernando Montiel, Toshiaki Nishioka, Jorge Arce, Ryan Burnett and Nordine Oubaali are just a handful of his wins. Even since the Inoue fight in 2019 he has scored notable wins stopping the then 17-0 Oubaali in 4 rounds and the then 24-0 Reymart Gaballo, further enhancing his reputation as a modern great. Early in his career Donaire lived up to the moniker of the "Filipino Flash". He was lightning quick, with great timing, vicious power but some what poor boxing skills. His power and speed allowed him to get away with making mistakes, and bailed him out of bad situations. With his speed gone now a days, he has changed into a fighter who uses his size, and his ridiculously big frame at Bantamweight, along with his incredibly chin, to take when he needs to. He applies intense stalking pressure now a days. It's slow, it's deliberate, but it's hard to deal with given he still has excellent timing and is happy to take a shot to land a shot. The change in style is almost a reinvention of a fighter, and it's one that has seen him have success well beyond the typical age of a Bantamweight, of almost any fighter for that matter. It's a change that has allowed him to have success in the last part of his career, and whilst it won't forever, he will remain a threat to all the top fighters at 118lbs, due to his toughness, power, size and timing. In their first bout the expectation was that Inoue was going to slay Donaire, stopping him and sending him into retirement. Had that happened it's fair to say Donaire would have been downplayed as being shot, and old. The fact he gave Inoue a tough bout saw both men enhancing their profiles and their positions. For Donaire to then bounce back and blast out Oubaali and prove he was still an elite level Bantamweight further enhanced both men, and coming into the Donaire is older than he was, but is also, arguably, standing in a better position than he was in 2019. Sadly for Donaire however, we don't see him having the same success he had in the first bout with Inoue. Instead we expect to see Inoue being smarter, sharper and using his brain more. He knows what Donaire's left hook can do, and he also knows Donaire can be hurt to the body, with a liver shot sending Donaire down in their first bout. We suspect that will be the key for Inoue here, as he uses his speed, to target the body of Donaire, landing single shots to to slowly take the wind out of Donaire in the early part of the fight. Single shots from Inoue, who will look to get in and get out, draw Donaire into mistakes and tag the body. In the later rounds those body shots will take a toll, force Donaire to defend his body, before Inoue goes up top with a burst of head shots, forcing a stoppage in the later rounds. After the bout, win or lose, we expect to see Donaire retire sailing off in to the sunset as a modern legend. Likewise we expect this to be either the final, or penultimate, Bantamweight bout for Inoue who will move up to Super Bantamweight and begin to hunt world titles in his 4th weight class. Prediction - TKO10 Inoue On September 22nd 2021 the Japanese boxing world had a notable upset as the long and impressive WBC Light Flyweight reign of Kenshiro Teraji (18-1, 10) came to an end in his 9th defense, as he was stopped by the unheralded Masamichi Yabuki (13-3, 12), who dethroned the champion in round 10. The result was a huge one for those who follow the lower weight classes, and also a bout that essentially derailed a dream title unification between Kenshiro and WBA "super" champion Hiroto Kyoguchi, who had began to make a name in the US thanks to linking up with Eddie Hearn, Matchroom Boxing and DAZN.
Following that bout there was a complaint put forward by Kenshiro's team, including his father, that the bout had been marred by head clashes, notable caused by Yabuki, with one late in the bout negatively affecting Kenshiro, who didn't look the same after one particular clash. This issue was raised with the JBC, who did their best impression of the British Boxing Board of Control and pretended it had no bearing on the result of the bout, and the WBC, who took steps to order a rematch, recognising the head clash, along with Kenshiro's reign as reasons for the men to go again in an immediate rematch. Around the time of the WBC order the terms for the rematch were agreed relatively quickly between the 4 sides involved, Green Gym - who promote Yabuki, BMB and Misako Gym - who represent Kenshiro, and Shinsei, who promoted the first bout and will also promote this one. Coming in to this bout there is a lot of small stories that feel somewhat unresolved from their first bout. Their first fight had been marred with issues before and during the contest. The most notable of those wasn't, however, the head clash. Instead it was Kenshiro contracting covid in the weeks before the bout. He had been said to only have had mild symptoms, but the bout had been re-arranged due to his positive test, and it was suggested that issue getting back into fighting shape only weeks after contracting the virus had taken it's toll on him, leaving him less than 100% come fight night. Notable we have seen numerous fighters being affected by the virus, and many of them haven't looked themselves in their first bout following the illness. It's maybe didn't change the outcome of the bout, but it's fair to say that Kenshiro's preparation for that first bout was certainly not great. Given that covid affects the repository system, and Kenshiro had looked tired in the middle of the bout, there is a good chance the issues of the virus were still affecting him in the ring. As for the bout there was the well reported issue with head clashes, which went unpunished by the referee. Coming in to this rematch we're expecting to see Kenshiro at 100%, and determined to avenge his loss, reclaim his title and do more than just win, we expect him to look to make a statement. As for Yabuki he'll be wanting to put to bed any idea that he needed to be facing a somewhat sub-optimal Kenshiro to win, and that he relied on some generous work from the referee to win. In fact he's also like to feel fired up by the suggestions that he was fighting dirty and couldn't have taken home the win without now well noted issues with his head. With those things in mind we're expect to see both men fighting with more hunger, more desire and more stubbornness than in their first bout. Those traits alone could actually affect this bout, quite considerably. For those who haven't followed the two men, and their careers so far, it's worth learning something about the two fighters. Prior to last year's huge win Masamichi Yabuki wasn't known at all outside of Asia. In fact he'd only fought once outside of Japan, scoring a win in South Korea. In Japan he was probably best known for 3 things. The first of those was losing to Junto Nakatani in the 2016 All Japan Rookie of the Year final at Flyweight, the second was his 2018 loss to Seigo Yuri Akui, and his third was winning the Japanese Light Flyweight title in 2020, when he stopped Tsuyoshi Sato inside a round. Even in Japan he wasn't a big name, fighting mostly in Kariya and only having had 3 fights at Korakuen Hall, the holy land of Japanese boxing. Despite his set backs he had scored notable wins, stopping Gilberto Pedroza in 2 rounds, Ryuto Oho in 6, Rikito Shiba in 4, Sato in 1 and had defended defend the Japanese title with a wide win over Toshimasa Ouchi. He was however very much regarded as something of a local star in Central Japan, and someone who had been showcased a fair bit on Boxing Raise, thanks to their relationship with Yabuki's promoter. In the ring Yabuki is a really good boxer-puncher, or more of a puncher-boxer if we're being honest. He's one of the hardest punchers at 108lbs, and like many punchers wants to create space to have full extension on his shots. He does that through a combination of solid footwork, and being something of a physical freak at the weight with long arms and a lean body. Unlike most puncher's he's not really an out and out aggressive fighter, though he certainly has that in his locker, and instead looks to create openings before landing his power shots, and either hurting them and going for a finish, or breaking them down as the bout goes on. As we saw in the first match with Kenshiro, when he has has his man hurt he can really put his shots together, and he is a natural finisher. He's not the quickest, or the sharpest, but he's hard hitting, well schooled, understands his advantages, and with such a big win against Kenshiro last time out, he'll be full of confidence, self belief and determination to keep a hold of the WBC title. Although Yabuki is something of an unknown outside of Japan it's fair to say that Kenshiro had something of an international following prior to his loss to Yabuki. He had gotten attention early in his career due to his name and impressive performance, and within just a few years of his debut he had quickly raced through the rankings, winning the WBC title with a close decision win over Ganigan Lopez. After struggling in his first defense, a narrow in over Pedro Guevara, Kenshiro began to impressive, and defended the title against Gilberto Pedroza, Gangigan Lopez, Milan Melindo, Saul Juarez, Jonathan Taconing, Randy Petalcorin and Tetsuya Hisada. He had a solid claim as the best fighter in the division, in terms of resume and in terms of ability. Sadly though Kenshiro's career has had issues the last few years, including a drunk incident that forced his bout with Hisada to be delayed and contracting Covid 19 just weeks before the originally scheduled date for his bout with Yabuki. He also appeared to be quietly dropped by Fuji TV, who had carried most of his world title bouts before the Hisada bout, and didn't fight at all in 2020. In the ring Kenshiro, at his best, is a brilliant boxer. He's light on his feet, intelligent, creates space for his sharp punches, mixes his shots up well, and has one of the best jabs in the sport. In fact he pretty much shut down Melindo with his jab in 2018. He also has under-rated power, wonderful placing of his body shots, and the ability to take opponents apart with his accuracy, timing and variety. Notanly Kenshiro really can do it all, and is just as comfortable taking the fight to an opponent as he is boxing and moving, picking his spots and punishing mistakes, which he does draw a lot of for counter opportuntiies. Looking at flaws he does have a knack of dropping his defense on his way out, and backing up in straight lines. There are also question marks to be had about his confidence and mental state coming into this bout, and whether or not Covid has had a lasting effect on him. If it does he may well be in trouble here. It's also worth asking just how committed he is to sport, and what hunger he still has following his title loss last year. Going in to the first bout we expected Kenshiro to have a fair straight forward task with Ybuki, though we did suggest that Yabuki had a chance late on if Kenshiro slowed down. We feel that Covid, and the issues Kenshiro had getting back into shape following the illness had a major impact on that first fight. With that in mind we'll against be backing Kenshiro to win here, and avenge his loss. However we do wonder if we'll get the same Kenshiro that managed 8 world title defenses, and if not he could be in trouble again here, against a man we don't think will want to easily hand back the title. We expect Kenshiro to start well, and to then conserve energy in the middle rounds, expecting a big Yabuki finish and keeping something in reserve for those late rounds. In rounds 9, 10, 11 and 12 we expect to see Kenshiro then putting the jets back on, and out working Yabuki to take a competitive decision win. Predcition - UD12 Kenshrio In our predictions to begin the year we predicted 2022 was going to be the year of rematches, and after a number of those in January they continue to come this weekend, as we see a highly anticipated, and long over-due, rematch between former 2-time WBC Super Flyweight champion Srisaket Sor Rungvisai (50-5-1, 43) and the man who first dethroned him, Carlos Cuadras (39-4-1, 27), with the two looking to reclaim the currently vacant WBC Super Flyweight title. The very title Cuadras took from Srisaket in their first meeting.
In recent years the Super Flyweight division has been getting the respect it deserves, and the fighters are getting the credit and audience it has long been due, but sadly when these two first fought in 2014 things weren't like that, and many missed out on the bout, and the controversy and bad taste that it left. The expectation was that the two men would rematch some time after that bout, but few watching that bout would have expected an almost 8 year wait for the two to go again. When they first fought Srisaket was an unknown outside of Asia, and was looking to make his second defense of the title which he had won by destroying the under0rated Yota Sato. Cuadras on the other hand was an unbeaten contender, and seen as one of the future stars for Mexican boxing having had a solid amateur career and been co-promoted by Teiken. Interestingly Teiken won the purse bids for that bout and arranged for it to be in Mexico, giving Cuadras the best chance of winning. And win is what he did, when the bout was stopped prematurely, giving Cuadras a technical decision victory, and seemingly bailed him out as Cuadras was starting to come on strong and wear down his man. It seemed the ending was very much a lucky escape for the Mexican fighter, who had looked great boxing and moving in the early rounds, but had burnt a lot of energy with his movement, and was visibly slowing in the rounds prior to the finish. Had the bout not been stopped there's a fair shout that Sriskaet would have either stopped Cuadras, or reeled him in on the scorecards. Following his title win Cuadras seemed to do what he could to avoid a rematch with the Thai, who became mandatory for the WBC title when he beat Jose Salgado a year later in a final eliminator, but ended up waiting almost 2 years longer for his eventual shot, which came against Cuadras' conqueorer Roman Gonzalez. Despite the long wait he made the most of that bout, taking a questionable decision over Gonzalez, before destroying the Nicaraguan legend in a rematch to put himself firmly on the international stage. Sadly for Srisaket, despite his success against Gonzalez, he has had to wait 8 years now to get his hands back on Cuadras, and neither man has quite looked the same in recent bouts. Despite that this is a bout fans of the division will be looking forward to, and will be expecting real fireworks from. Fireworks we were denied somewhat in their first bout when Cuadras' movement played such a major factor in the action. Thankfully neither man really needs much of an introduction thanks to the fact both have had numerous big bouts available around the world in recent years. But still it is worth quickly looking over what the two men have done, and what they bring to the ring. The heavy handed Srisaket is a beat of a fighter with a physically imposing style that combines relentless pressure, physical toughness and strength and freakish punching power. At his best he was a total monster, and someone fighters did their best to ignore. He showed how good he was in his prime against Yota Sato, destroying the talented Japanese fighter who retired soon afterwards. He also showed it when he dismantled Jose Salgado. Sadly though his most notable bouts came when he was perhaps on the slide a little bit, with both of his wins over Roman Gonzalez and his win over Juan Francisco Estrada coming after his 30th birthday. He wasn't shot, not by any means, but he was starting to lose something and that became particularly clear when he faced Hiram Irak Diaz, in 2018 just 18 months after the first Gonzalez fight, and against Amnat Ruenroeng in 2020. It's been a slow regression, hidden by his power, but it has been clear for those following him over the last decade or so. Cuadras on the other hand is more of a boxer-puncher than Srisaket. He's light on his feet and was a very good amateur boxer who has kept much of those amateur skills in his locker. Prior to facing Srisaket he was seen as more of a puncher who could box, and at the time sported a 29-0 (24) record, but in recent years his power has proven to be less effective at the higher levels, but his boxing skills, shot selection, movement and hand speed have all been great weapons for him. Like Srisaket he is best known for his bouts with Roman Gonzalez and Juan Francisco Estrada and sadly like Srisaket his career is certainly winding down his career. He's currently 33 and has gone 4-4 in his last 8 bouts, suffered his sole stoppage loss last time out, to Estrada, and only narrowly squeaked past Jose Maria Cardenas in 2019, in his last win. He looks to have aged, and whilst he put in a great performance against Estrada last year, he was still stoppage in what looks likely to have been one last hurrah from him. Given both men are past their best, and are likely coming to the end of their careers, which have both been excellent, it can be hard to judge this one. Sadly for Cuadras however we get the feeling this bout is rather personal in the eyes of Srisaket. He will feel that his loss of the title to Cuadras was wrong, and needing to wait so long to get his hands on the Mexican in a rematch would have just infuriated him more. The Thai will be hungry for revenge and that hunger, we feel, will drive him on. Not just to win, but to win quickly than Estrada did, afterall he's hunting another bout with Estrada himself. We suspect a very fired up Srisaket starts fast, looks to bully Cuadras, who will be slower than he was in their first meeting, and will break him down to the body. The Mexican, has lost some of the speed and movement which kept him out of harm at times in their first bout, and that will be a major issue here against the pressure of Srisaket. We expect to see Cuadras make a fight of it at times, but will be broken down in the middle rounds and stopped as Srisaket becomes the first ever 3 time WBC Super Flyweight champion. Prediction - TKO7 Srisaket In 2020 the Minimumweight division got one it's most notable results in recent years as Panya Pradabsri (37-1, 23) dethroned long term WBC Minimumweight champion Wanheng Menayothin (55-1, 19), ending Menayothin's unbeaten record, at 54 fights, and 6 year reign as the WBC champion. The bout wasn't just a changing of the guard at 105lbs, but was also a really good bout, with fantastic back and forth, and was, genuinely, one of the best bouts the division has seen in the last decade or so, with Panya taking a close, and some what controversial decision.
Interestingly going into that bout Wanheng had announced his retirement, he had complained about health issues, and it seemed almost as if the bout was little more than a passing of the torch from one of the faces of Thai boxing to the next generation. In the bout however Wanheng didn't look like someone wanting to retire. In fact he looked like someone who was angry about the way his promoter had treat him, and he gave Panya all he could handle, as if Wanheng was himself wanting to ruin the plans of the promoters of the event. Coming in to this bout things feel very, very different to how they did ahead of their first bout. Wanheng isn't openly talking about retirement, he hasn't got a 54 fight unbeaten run, or the WBC title and instead he's coming in as the challenger. He's also coming in as a man who will want to reclaim what he lost in November 2020. He is however now 36 years old, and that is absolutely ancient for a Minimumweight fighter. Sure we have had an older Minimumweight world champion, with Muhammad Rachman winning the WBA title aged 39, but 36 is still very, very old for the division. For a fighter with the style of Wanheng, age is a potential issue, as he presses forward, uses pressure, and combinations to win rounds, and doesn't have the "Rock Breaker" power of someone like Rachman. On the other hand Panya has shines as a champion. He won the title, as previously mentioned, back in November 2020, but since then he has only defend the title once, and that was a surprisingly competitive bout with Danai Ngiabphukhiaw, more competitive than the scores cards suggested. He has taken the title and improved since winning the belt, but has seemingly plateaued, or even started to regress. He's 30 himself, which is certainly youngster for the division, and he has got people breathing down his neck for a world title fight, not just Wanheng. We get the feeling that, whilst Wanheng was a long term champion, Panya is going to be something akin to a transitional champion, holding the belt for just a few short years before someone really takes the title, and runs with it. In the ring Wanheng is one of the smarter Minimumweights. He's not a heavy handed fighter, like some of the emerging fighters in the division, or a man with a huge work rate, or incredible speed. Instead he's a consistent, intelligent pressure fighter, who uses a tight guard, deliberate foot based pressure, a good solid jab, and lets combinations go when he's up close. He's tough, he has a very solid defense, and knows how to win rounds, when to put his foot on the gas, and when to cruise. He's crafty, skilled, and even at 36 it's hard to imagine his skills fading too much with his age, though his work rate might be less than it was back in 2020. The one main issue for him is his footwork, he was never the quickest, and at 36 we imagine his feet will be slower than ever before. Panya on the other hand is a boxer puncher. He likes to have full extension on his shots, have some space to work with and his straight punches are his keys to victory. Notably he is one of the best body punchers at 105lbs, and he has got a good work rate. He's struggled when fighters have been quicker than him, something we saw against Danai where he never really pinned down his man, but he's not slow himself and when he is the quicker man he can use the ring really well on the back foot, as well on the front foot. He's heavy handed for a Minimumweight, without being a truly destructive fighter, and his shots do have an effect, though we do wonder if that power can hold against genuine world level fighters. In their first fight Panya started well, took an early lead, and managed to just keep his nose in the end. That was despite a huge effort from Wanheng late on as he looked to take out Panya and keep a hold of his belt. It was an effort that showed the veteran still had plenty of life in his legs, and was a good enough finish to make many feel he had done enough to retain his title, though that wasn't a view shared by any of the judges. This time around we expect something similar. We expect to see Panya start well, but we expect his good start to continue deeper into the fight, before Panya gets on his toes in the final rounds, neutralising the pressure and big finish of Wanheng. Much like the first bout this be competitive, it will be exciting, and much like the first bout, Panya will retain his title with a close decision. Though this time around this will be less close than their first bout. Prediction - UD12 Panya The first world title fight to contain an Asian this year will see unbeaten Filipino Mark Magsayo (23-0, 16) get his long awaited first shot at a title, as he takes on WBC Featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr (31-1, 18). On paper this is a really good match up, between a top champion, albeit a horrible inactive one who has been wasting his career since winning the title, and an unbeaten contender who is incredibly talented, but also very clearly flawed. It's a bout with a lot of questions about both men going in, and it's a bout which will end with either one man paying for inactivity, or another paying for the flaws which have plagued in recent bouts.
If he was more active there is a very, very genuine chance we'd be talking about Gary Russell Jr as a future hall of famer. His talent is incredible, he's staggeringly quick and he's made good fighters look poor and his performances have had glimpses of boxing genius. He made Jhonny Gonzalez look terrible, when he won the WBC title in 2015, he went on to defend the title against future champions Joseph Diaz and Kiko Martinez, who holds a title in the same division today, and has good wins over the likes of Tugstsogt Nyamabayar. Sadly those those wins are spread over 5 years. Since winning the title, in March 2015, he has only defended it 5 times in almost 7 years, and has shown that whilst he's incredibly skilled, he's lacking hunger to show how good he really is. Whilst he's not in the ring often enough, for anyone's liking, there is no denying Russell Jr's ability. He is a brilliant boxer, with legitimately scary hand speed, great movement, very impressive reactions and timing, and some of the most blistering combinations in the sport. He's not the biggest puncher out there, but thanks to his speed his shots carry plenty of pop, and stoppages over the likes of Gonzalez and Martinez have come from his speed. Afterall, it's the punches a fighter doesn't see that do the most damage and when Russell lets shots go fighters don't typically see them. When looking for flaws with Russell Jr they are genuinely hard to come by. One of the few is his lack of reach, and that could be a problem if he was to face someone like WBO champion Emanuel Navarrete or Mexican contender Rey Vargas, and another is the fact he slows as fights go on, and if he doesn't stop an opponent, things do tend to get tougher for him in the second half of a fight, an issue likely exacerbated by his inactivity. Even then, when he does slow down, he is still lightning quick, but does often look a little bit human for a few rounds, and that is likely where a top fighter could make him pay. Aged 26 Mark Magsayo is a fighter coming in to his prime, and he does so with a lot of experience, having debuted back in 2013 at the age of 17. In his early years as a professional the Filipino boxing press were really excited about him and he was seen as a future star of Filipino boxing for ALA Gym, who were the big promoter in the Philippines at the time. Whilst his talent was obvious, he was moved somewhat oddly. His first 13 bouts really didn't see him tested, and then he was thrown in with Chris Avalos in 2016, that was a real test, and saw Magsayo digging deep to pull himself off the canvas to stop Avalos. Then there was some poor opponents again before he was given a real test in 2017 by Japan's Shota Hayashi, in what was much closer than the 116-112 scorecards suggested. Having moved to 17-0 the then 22 year old Magsayo should have been kept on the fringes of world rankings, with more character building bouts against fighters similar to Avalos and Hayashi. Instead however he fell out with ALA and eventually left the Filipino promotional power house, and was out of the ring for over a year. In recent bouts we've seen him finally taking on the sort of bouts he should have had a year or two earlier, including a tough test with Rigoberto Hermosillo and a real gut check over Julio Ceja. Both of which showed he could dig deep, but both also showed that there was a lack in his boxing education and development. In the ring there is no denying that Magsayo is a talent. He's quick, sharp, has good foot work, lovely variation in his shots, real grit and determination, and it's clear there is the foundation there for a future world champion. Sadly however he often relies too much on his skills and looking good in the ring, and can often look incredibly lazy as a result. He looks brilliant when he lets his hands go, but doesn't do it enough, he can be backed up too easily, giving the view that his opponent is having more success than they really should, and he also looks really bad under pressure. Were it not for his heart and determination it's possible he could have had 3 or 4 losses to his name, in all honesty without his heart we suspect he'd have lost against Avalos, Hayashi, Hermosillo and Ceja, and being truthful they weren't world class, at least not when they fought Magsayo. Another issue with Magsayo is since linking up with Freddy Roach, he has tried to adapt his style somewhat, and looks like a fighter wanting to conserve energy, making us wonder whether Roach is maybe aware of a stamina issue with Magsayo, something that could explain some of his in ring laziness. Early on we expect this to be at least a little bit interesting. Magsayo isn't as quick or as sharp as Russell Jr, but there is certainly some speed in his hands, and we suspect he will look to time and counter Russell Jr. Sadly though that will only work for a round or two as Russell Jr takes a look at what Magsayo has to offer, and shakes some ring rust. As we go through the rounds however Magsayo's laziness will show and that will come at the same time as Russell Jr begins to feel more and more confident. When that happens we expect to see the American pick apart the Filipino to force a stoppage in the middle rounds. Prediction - TKO6 Russell Jr This coming Saturday in California we'll see WBC Bantamweight champion Nonito Donaire (41-6, 27) take on interim champion Reymart Gaballo (24-0, 20) in a mandatory title fight, and a rare all-Filipino world title bout.
The bout isn't the one anyone wanted to see for Donaire, who had been linked to unification bouts against Naoya Inoue and Johnriel Casimero, but it should be a an interesting one, with the bout serving as a chance for Donaire, aged 39, to continue an incredible late career run as a world champion and for Gaballo to announce himself a legitimate world level fighter. Of the two men the more well known, by far, is Donaire. He's a true future Hall of Famer and a legitimate legend of the sport. His career has seen him win world titles at Flyweight, Bantamweight, Super Bantamweight and Featherweight, before moving back down the weights and picking up Super Bantamweight and Bantamweight titles a second time. Now aged 39 he is the oldest ever Bantamweight world champion, and he is still a devastating fighter. He gave Naoya Inoue his toughest bout, in 2019, and blasted out Nordine Oubaali this past May for the WBC title, proving that even now, at a very advanced age for a Bantamweight, he is still a world class fighter. In his younger years Donaire was a very sharp boxer-puncher. He was technically solid, without being spectacular, but had lightning speed, amazing timing and fight changing power. His left hook was as potent a weapon as any fighter had in their arsenal. As he moved up the weights and ages, he slowed down, and whilst his power has always been brutal he's adapted his style, allowing him to age remarkably well in the ring. He's no longer a quick, sharp puncher, but instead he's become the sort of Horror Villain, walking opponents down, hunting them and forcing an error for him to counter. He's now using his size, and he is a huge Bantamweight, and experience rather than speed and is a very, very hard man to beat at 118lbs. Reymart Gaballo on the other hand is someone looking to make an impact, and make up for a very underwhelming performance last time out, when he took a much debated split decision against Emmanuel Rodriguez. The heavy handed Gaballo has looked really good at times, and for much of his career he has looked like a heavy handed, quick, sharp and exciting fighter. He showed what he could do in his US debut, when he beat Stephon Young for the WBA "interim" world title, though sadly he then went on to score some low key wins, rather than build on that one, and it wasn't until last December that he faced another noteworthy fighter, and took that questionable decision over Rodriguez. That bout saw him look limited, tame, and very much like a fighter trying to change his style, right before the biggest fight of his career. In that win he was more patient than ever, but looked like he had lost himself to a change that he didn't fully believe in or truly commit to. At his best Gaballo looks explosive, hard hitting, and like a man who loves committing to combinations and flurries, with a good sense of flair and excitement. In fact he has a lot of similarities to John Riel Casimero, albeit a much less proven and less impressive Casimero. Sadly though he really didn't fight his usual fighter against Rodriguez, and the likely reason for that is the fact Rodriguez didn't let him. Instead Rodriguez boxed, used his brain, created range and angles and left Gaballo looking lost and confused and really not doing much at all as a result. That bout left us feeling that he was trying to change who he was, and lost what made him who he was. If that's the same here he's going to be in a lot of trouble, especially given that he's not a fighter with particularly good defense. Gaballo certainly has the potential to be a major player in the division. He has the power, the speed and the explosiveness to be a real danger man. Sadly though where not sure he has the experience, the seasoning or the polish to be that man at the moment. The Rodriguez fight showed a lot of issues with him, and he was lucky that Rodriguez, whilst a very good boxer, is not a puncher. Sadly for Gaballo, Donaire is a puncher, and Donaire won't try to fiddle his way to a victory. Instead he will time Gaballo, lure Gaballo into a mistake and detonate a thunderous left hook. When he does that Gaballo will feel it. He may withstand some, but sooner or later one will land too clean and will drop him. Donaire might not be the fighter he used to be, but he is still a clinical finisher and we can't see him letting Gaballo off the hook when he has him hurt. Especially knowing that Gaballo has so many defensive flaws. This could be exciting early, but we only see it ending one way. An early win for Donaire. Prediction - TKO4 Donaire |
World Title Previews
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