One of the worst things about boing in the last few years has been the sheer number of bouts that have had to be cancelled for one reason or another. Recently Covid19 has caused a lot of mess to planned bouts, but so to have things like visa issues and injuries. One bout that has been cancelled recently is a show down between Filipino icon Manny Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39) and unbeaten American Welterweight star Errol Spence Jr (27-0, 21), in what was set to be one of the boxing highlights of the summer. That was cancelled when Spence was deemed medically unfit to fight. Thankfully however American based Cuban Yordenis Ugas (26-4, 12) shows his fighters mentality and has taken his chance to face Pacquiao in Spences' absence in a bout we'll get this weekend.
Whilst clearly a big step down from what we were expecting, this is still a really good bout, and one with a really interesting sub story, that of the WBA Welterweight "Super" title which was taken from Pacquiao by the WBA last year. The styles should also gel well, and in many ways this could end up being a very fan friendly bout even if Ugas doesn't have the star power than Spence does.
Before we talk about what we expect when we get the men in to the ring, we do need to touch on the WBA super title back story. Paquiao won that title in 2019, when he defeated Keith Thurman in a brilliant performance at the age of 40. That was, however, 2 years ago. In early 2021 Pacquiao of the title due to inactivity, during a time when a pandemic forced a lot of fighters to be inactive, and was named champion in Recess. Following Pacquiao being stripped Ugas was upgraded from the Regular champion, something he became in September 2020 with a win over Abel Ramos, to the Super champion, despite having never defended the regular title. Whilst it might seem like a little thing, especially in an era where the WBA pop out titles at an alarming rate, it was still a very questionable decision, especially given that they have not yet had a bout for the regular title since Ugas won it, in September 2020.
On to the fighters themselves, it's fair to say that Pacquiao needs no introduction. The Filipino fighter has been a staple of the sport for over 20 years, and has made a name for himself as one of the sports few truly global mega stars. He's been a Filipino hero, a huge international fan favourite, and one of the legends of the sport. His moves through the weights has been remarkable, as has his longevity, and sustained success at the top. He is one of the true greats and has won titles from Flyweight to Light Middleweight, whilst also having a fun style, putting on great fights and beating a string of icons, hall of famers, and modern greats.
Sadly at the age of 42, and with 2 years of inactivity, it's really hard to know what Pacquiao has left in the tank, though he did look very good against Keith Thurman, dropping Thurman on route to a decision win. He's not the explosive Phenom that he once was, and is much slower now a days to what he once was, but he's adapted brilliantly, he's still heavy handed, and he knows how to control the tempo of bouts well. He's used his experience, ring craft and the lessons learned in the ring to change his style, and rather than being the explosive dervish of destruction, he's now a more apt, skilled and rounded fighter. In his last few fights he's still looked dangerous, but he's less active and much smarter between the ropes, rather than the risk taking aggressive monster he once was.
For years Yordenis Ugas was an over-looked threat in the Light Welterweight and Welterweight divisions, and one of the sports unlucky men. So far 3 of his 4 losses have been split decisions, including one to Shawn Porter, and he's not really had much fortune at all during his career. In fact getting a Pacquiao payday on short notice is the one true bit of luck he's had, and sadly at the age of 35 it may well be too little too late for him to really make the most of. Despite being a hard luck fighter he's become a bit of a fan favourite in recent years, thanks to a mix of his poor luck, and good story, as well as his in ring style and willingness to face anyone any time. During his 30 fight career he has faced numerous unbeaten fighters, and man who were seen as high risk low reward, such as Levan Ghvamichava, Thomas Dulorme and Ray Robinson, and has not been someone willing to turn down a fighter or an opportunity. Something we again see here.
Unlike some Cuban fighters, we're looking Guillermo Rigondeaux, Ugas isn't scared of a fight. He's not a true all out war monger, but he's a fighter who has always shown a willingness to go to war when he needs to, and is happy to get on the front foot. He's a smart boxer, and doesn't take too many undue risks, but he's also not going to make fans boo him out of the venue. Instead he's an aggressive, intelligent fighter, who can spoil when he needs to, dig deep when he needs to, and is a fighter who grits his teeth when he's behind, making a lot of his fights very close. Ugas is often in front of his man, using a good jab, pressing forward and fighting a smart, yet exciting style of fight, where punches will be traded, and he does open up with some very nice flurries whilst also being defensively smart. He is however now 35 years old, and we do wonder whether father time, and inactivity, could begin to take a toll on him in the coming years. He's younger than Pacquiao, sure, but he's also not the once in a life time talent that Pacquiao is, and it could be that Ugas has lost more to father time than the Filipino.
One thing we're expecting here is a bout that is fought in an exciting manner, even if neither man is a spring chicken. We expect the styles to gel really well, with Ugas intelligently pressuring, and Pacquiao looking to get bursts of shots off before getting out of ring. It won't be an intense fight, we don't think either man has it in them to consistently throw 100 punches in a round, but we do expect some really exciting back and forth moments. Ugas will get to Pacquiao at times, and as the rounds go on the pressure of Ugas will get him more and more success.
Sadly for the Cuban we think, by the time he begins to grind down the Filipino, he will have left himself too much to do, as we've seen from him at times in the past, and whilst it will be close, hotly contested and exciting, we suspect Pacquiao will have the rounds in the bank to take home a close, and debated, split decision win.
Prediction - SD12 Pacquiao
When we talk about modern day boxing legends few can compare to Filipino great Manny Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39), who has done stuff that many wouldn't have dreamed possible in our great sport. The looks to continue his career this coming Saturday and add yet another notable win to his incredible resume as he battles unbeaten and popular American Keith Thurman (29-0-0-1, 22) and looks to unify the WBA "regular" title, which he won last year, with Thurman's "Super" title. A win for Pacquiao would be yet another cherry on top of a career that has had so much success, and would prove, even at the age of 40, that he was still an active legend. For Thurman the bout acts as a chance to finally get an elite level name on his record, after years of talking about being a special fighter.
Pacquiao, of course better known as "Pacman", has had the story of his career told, re-told and re-told once again. The early days, putting weights in his pockets to and fighting as a 16 year old in small venues of the Philippines, making a name for himself and fighting to eat, to his modern day status as one of the greatest fighters in living memory and a fighter who has made more money than most people could ever dream of. During his 24 year career he has done so much, moving from Flyweight all the way up to Light Middleweight, grabbing titles in almost every division along the way and fighting in a variety of countries. He has been one of boxing's few true, global stars and a man who has transcended the sport whilst creating a resume that reads like a history of boxing greats.
From beating Chatchai Sasakul in 1998 to beating Adrien Broner earlier this year Pacquiao has spent 20 years at world level and has the right to retire as a legend whenever he wishes. Instead however he wants to build on his legacy and etch his name deeper into the annals of boxing history.
Not only has Pacquiao been at the top for longer than most but he has done so whilst adapting, changing and altering his style. Early on he was a crude, left hand happy power puncher, before becoming a dynamic dervish of 2-handed power and speed, then as age got to him he began to show more boxing finesse, picking his power punches and building on his ring craft to control the pace and tempo. Even at his current age he is still a lighting quick fighter, but knows that he needs to pace himself a little more, fighting at a controlled range and using his dynamite left hand to force any fighter to respect him. He's certainly past his peak, but has adapted to prolong his career and his success.
At the age of 30 Keith Thurman is a man who really should be a big star than he is, or perhaps he could have bee a much bigger star than he is. He's a good looking, charismatic guy, who early on had a fun style, with explosive power. He combined a style in the ring with a confident personality and a cool cat persona. He was an easy guy to root for, as the Welterweight division shifted focus from the old men on top to the new breed breaking through. Sadly though Thurman never really had the transition he needed, he could never get the passing of the torch fight, and lost some of his best years through injury and inactivity.
In 2013 Thurman beat former world champion Jan Zaveck, in a big win at the time, then stopped Diego Gabriel Chaves for the WBA "interim" world title, which he defended at the end of the year against Jesus Soto Karass. Those 3 wins saw him with an unbeaten record, 20 T/KO's from 22 wins, and a title. He was just 25 and looked like he had the keys to the Welterweight castle. Since then however he has gone 9-0 (2), fighting just 7 times in 5 years and rarely looking like the man many had pegged him for. For much of that reign his competition lacked quality and real threat, with only Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia really regarded as threats to Thurman on paper. The others were typically older fighters, with their best years behind them, like Julio Diaz, Roberto Guerrero and Luis Collazo. Despite the less than amazing competition the WBA have stood by his side, and he has moved from interim to regular to Super Champion during his reign with their title.
Whilst injuries certainly were a problem for Thurman his attitude had changed. When he was climbing the ranks it was all about taking over, being the avoided man, the hot young gun that no one wanted to face. Since winning the title however he has become the thing he complained about. He's failed to take on the rising lions of the emerging wave, the likes of Errol Spence Jr, and and 7 of his last 9 have come against men the wrong side of 30, with Pacquiao joining those older foes of Thurman's. A shame we've not seen him in with the fellow best, given his athletic and exciting style, his boxer-puncher ability and his genuinely nasty finishing.
Whilst Pacquiao, at his best, would have been strongly favoured over a fighter like Thurman, it's now a case of questioning how much Pacquiao has left in the tank.He looked like he had lost a couple of steps in his win over Broner earlier this year, and Lucas Matthysse looked so washed last year that it's hard to know how good the Pacquiao of today really is. Thurman hasn't lived up to his expectations, he's not shown world class power at world level, but given such a big age and natural size advantage it's hard to go against him, especially given that Pacquiao has so many questions hanging over his head.
We would love to see Pacquiao add Thurman's name to a resume that includes Chatchai Sasakul, Lehlo Ledwaba, Marco Antonio Barrera, Juan Manuel Marquez, Erik Morales, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, Antonio Margarito, Shane Mosley and Timothy Bradley. Sadly though we fear father time will finally catch up to the Pacman.
Prediction TKO10 Thurman.
This coming Saturday we get the first major US bout featuring an Asian fighter, as Filipino superstar Manny Pacquiao (60-7-2, 39) defends his WBA Welterweight title against controversial American Adrien Broner (33-3-1-1, 24). For Pacquiao the bout will be the first of the title he won last July, when he stopped Lucas Matthysse, whilst Broner will be looking to reclaim the title he lost to Marcos Maidana in 2013.
At the age of 40 it's hard to know exactly what Pacquiao has left, however last time out he looked better than he had in a while, with some new found hunger and desire. It wasn't the Pacquiao of his heyday, where he was a destructive maelstrom of punches, but it was a sharp, hard hitting and smart Pacquiao. He was accurate, landing left hands at will and using his experience and skills to stop Matthysse. Amazingly the stoppage of Matthysse was Pacquiao's first since he stopped Miguel Cotto back in 2009.
At his very best Pacquiao was one of the all time greats, capable of living with the best in any era. Not only could have claim to have been one of the best, but he could also claim to have been one of the best in a number of divisions, having won world titles from 112lbs up to 154lbs. Now a days however it's clear that we're not looking at the same Pacquiao. He's still a very explosive southpaw, with a demonic straight left hand, however he has lost some speed, some ferocity and some of his energy. He's adapted his style well, and he's still a fantastic fighter, but not the man who defeated the likes of Chatchai Sasakul, Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, Juan Manuel Marquez, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito, among others.
An 80% Pacquiao would still be favoured over most fighters, but it's really not clear if we have an 80% Pacquiao or not. If we do it's always hard to bet against him.
Broner was once regarded as the heir apparent for Floyd Mayweater Jr. He was a skilled, counter puncher with a loud and brash attitude, that helped to generate a lot of buzz. He quickly went through the weigh classes, claiming titles from Super Featherweight to Welterweight, but it seemed like he move up due to an inability to control his weight, rather than naturally growing into bigger divisions.At the lower weights he was physically strong, powerful, quick and explosive. As he's moved up in weight he's kept the quickness, but is less physically imposing, less destructive and less active, in fact he's rather lazy in the ring, with low out put.
Technically Broner is a very talented fighter. When he actually uses his brain he's excellent. He's a sharp puncher, has a solid defense, impressive power and good timing. Sadly however his biggest issues in boxing, and it seems outside of boxing, is his brain and he's proven to not be the smartest or most dedicated fighter. Instead he's proving to be someone willing to derail his own career on a regular basis. If he clicks and can get up for a fight, and maintain the mental aspect that he needs he can be a major player, at least at Light Welterweight, but we're unsure whether he will ever make the most of his potential.
Given the age of Pacquiao we won't rule out a Broner win, but that would be an upset. We suspect Pacquiao will box to orders, move, stay busy and use his speed to simply out box a lazy Broner. Broner does have the skills and power to beat a faded Pacquiao, but we're not sure he has the mentality to beat the Filipino icon, even a 40 year old Pacquiao.
Our prediction is a wide UD to Pacquiao on this one.
In recent memory the Welterweight division has been one of the most significant divisions to the sport, with huge super fights and some of the sports most popular fighters competing in the division. Right now it's still an important division but does seem to be waiting for it's next super fight. Fighters like Errol Spence, Keith Thurman and Terence Crawford all look like they are going to be part of the the next generation of divisional super fights, yet none are currently looking like they are set to clash, at least not for now.
With the new generation coming through we're at an interesting position in the division with two veterans set to face off this coming Sunday with WBA champion Lucas Martin Matthysse (39-4-0-1, 36) defending his title against Filipino boxing idol Manny Pacquiao (59-7-2, 38) in Kuala Lumpur. Both have looked like they are a long way removed from their best, with their last outings showing them to be shadows of their former selves. Matthysse was last seen in the ring defeating Teerachai Kratingdaenggym for the title back in January, but had struggled before pulling out an 8th round KO of the Thai. Pacquiao on the other hand hasn't fought since his controversial loss to Jeff Horn in July 2017. Added to their poor recent performances are their ages, with Pacquiao 39 years old, 40 in December, and Matthysse being 35, 36 in September. Neither man is a youngster, both have looked poor, and both will know that anything but a win here will likely end their career's.
Of the two men it's certainly Pacquiao who has had the more distinguished career. The Filipino Southpaw has been one of the few fighters to transcend the sport and is seen as not only a boxing icon but a key Filipino figure and a key sporting figure. He has turned his boxing success into a political career in his homeland and is well known for his charitable work outside of the ring. Inside the ring he was, arguably, the most destructive man in the sport for over a decade starting in 1998, when he stopped Chatchai Sasakul for the WBC Flyweight title right through to 2009, when he stopped Miguel Cotto for the WBO Welterweight title.
At his very best Pacquiao was an aggressive, fast, combination punching Phenom with brutal power in his left hand, and explosive quickness. Sadly Pacquiao of the last few years has lost a lot of what made him special. His intensity and energy are gone, the fire seems to be going out, and at 39 there is real question marks regarding what he still has left in the tank. Even when he has dominated fighters, like Jessie Vargas, Chris Algieri and Brandon Rios, there hasn't quite been the same desire in his eyes as there was during his peak. Given his inactivity and age there is real questions as to whether he can even show glimpses of his old self.
Matthysse was, for a long time, one of the best active fighters to never win a proper world title. Between 2010 and 2014 he went from being an obscure Argentinian fighter in his homeland to being recognised as a leading Light Welterweight. He did that by travelling to the US and facing the likes of Zab Judah, Devon Alexander, Humberto Soto, Ajose Olusegun, Lamont Peterson and Danny Garcia. Whilst he would pick up some losses during that run, including very controversial ones to Judah and Alexander, he had proven he belong in the mix and claimed the WBC interim title along the way. He had also made fans, his exciting, power based style, made him an almost instant fan favourite and later wars with John Molina and Ruslan Provodnikov were both sensational action bouts.
Sadly for Matthysse a loss to Viktor Postol in 2017 caused Matthysse career to stall as he suffered a serious eye injury and would be out of the ring for over a year. Since then he has scored wins over Emmanuel Taylor and Teerachai, but looked a shadow of himself against the Thai, who made Matthysse look old, clumsy and slow.
This isn't so much of a super fight between two notable veterans with exciting styles. It's more of a retirement bout in our eyes, with the loser literally having no where to go. The winner will have a bargaining chip for another big fight down the line. But even then it's unlikely they'll manage to pick up another notable win, given how poor they looked last time out. We suspect Pacquiao's inactivity and age will be his downfall here, but given how poor Matthyse looked against Teerachai there is a good chance that Pacquiao will use what's left of his speed to pick up one more huge win for his legacy.
One of the big boxing revelations of 2017 was Thai power puncher Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, who made his US debut and took a close decision over Roman Gonzalez for the WBC Super Flyweight title. The Thai then went back to the US and scored a second win over Gonzalez, knocking out the Nicaraguan great to really prove his first win wasn't a fluke. This coming weekend we see another Thai make his US debut with the hopes of breaking out from obscurity and beating a recognisable name from Latin America.
The Thai in question is Teerachai Kratingdaenggym (38-0, 28), a rare Thai who fights at Welterweight. Despite his long unbeaten record he hasn't really made a mark of any kind outside of Asia, though is a fighter who has been in more than 30 PABA title fights and has certainly made a mark on the regional scene. Despite being a fixture on the Pacific and Asian boxing scenes he is a total known compared to his upcoming foe, hard hitting Argentinian star Lucas Martin Matthysse (38-4-0-1, 35), who has fought numerous bouts in the US during his exciting career.
Although unknown in the West Teerachai has been scoring notable C tier wins during his career, which began just over 10 years ago. These have included wins over Dan Nazareno Jr, Romeo Jakosalem, Randy Suico, Larry Siwu, and Vladimir Baez. None of those would be fit to test Matthysse, but in reality they are far from bad fighters, with Suico and Jakosalem being former OPBF champions and Baez now set for a Japanese title fight. The gap between them and Matthysse is huge, but they are decent wins for a rising contender, like Teerachai has been.
Teerachai has looked like a talented, but flawed, fighter coming through the ranks. He has appeared to depend a lot on his size and physical strength at times but can box, and his KO win against Baez showed that Teerachai can cope with very aggressive fighters and can counter that aggression well. His finishing shot against Baez was an absolute peach of a right hand, but he had also used a measured and stiff jab to keep Baez at range. That jab will have to be a key if he's to defeat the naturally smaller Matthysse,, but landing it on a world class fighter will be a million miles harder than it's been at the regional level.
Although a notable name now a days Matthysse was a relative unknown outside of Argentina early in his career. For some it wasn't until his controversial 2010 loss to Zab Judah that he managed to make a mark on the sport, with his even more controversial loss the following year to Devon Alexander really establishing him as being one to watch. Wins over Humberto Soto, Ajose Olusegun, Mike Dallas Jr and Lamont Peterson all showed that Matthysse was a definitive world class fighter, and despite a loss to Danny Garcia he has remained a fixture at world level, despite a stoppage loss in 2015 to Viktor Postol.
In the ring Matthysse is a viciously hard hitting fighter. He's tough, spiteful with his punches but can genuinely box rather well. He has often been regarded as crude and a slugger, but the reality is that he's a very solid boxer, who is just blessed with brutal power. Sadly he is now 35 with just 5 rounds under his belt in the last 2 years and is naturally quite a small fighter at 147lbs, despite being a huge puncher. Physically he's not much taller, or rangier, than Light Flyweight champion Ryoichi Taguchi, and whilst he is very powerful it was clear that he can struggle with tall rangy fighters, as he did against Postol.
The Argentinian is the clear favourite. He's the more proven fighter, the more well known man and the one with the power. Though as we saw last year there is a gritty determination among Thai fighters, which sees them take a chance when offered one.
We're expecting to see Teerachai make the most of this huge opportunity and look to establish his jab, keep Matthysse at range and frustrate the ageing Argentinian. Matthysse at his best almost certainly sees off Teerachai within 5 or 6 rounds. But this version of Matthysse is 10 years older than Teerachai, has had wear and tear from bouts with Postol, Rusklan Provodnikov, John Molina Jr, Danny Garcia, Humberto Soto and many more others. We're going on on the limb and predicting the upset here, with a shock win for Teerachai.
They say that in life the best things come to those who wait and that wine becomes finer with age. Sadly however things can also spoil with age, the waiting process can go on too long and things can over-cook and end up burned. Around 5 years ago we were all wanting to see Filipino superstar Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38) battle against unbeaten American Floyd Mayweather Jr (47-0, 26). It was, essentially, the one bout that could capture the attention of every boxing fan. It was, at the time, the two top fighters in the sport facing each other whilst both were still in their primes. At the time Mayweather was 33 and had just schooled the great Juan Manuel Marquez, Pacquiao on the other hand was 31 and had just decimated Miguel Cotto.
Since then both men have slipped. Pacquiao, now 36, has gone 7-2 (0), he's been iced by Marquez and his much vaunted power has seemingly vanished along with his killer instinct. What we have now is a Pacquiao who seems to have lost a lot of what made him so special and the stoppages over Miguel Cotto and Ricky Hatton are now looking like history. As for Mayweather, now 38, he's gone 7-0 (1) and has looked distinctly human in his last 2 bouts, both decision wins against Marcos Rene Maidana.
Despite the fact that neither man is what they used to be, the bout is now made and on May 2nd we finally see the two men sharing the ring together. The bout, the biggest in the history of the sport, will see the WBA, WBC and WBO Welterweight title all being unified. It will set all sorts of records, it will get the attention of the sporting world, and of course it will be the bout of the generation It will, essentially, decide the fighter of the generation and, regardless of the winner, it will leave many fans distraught at their man losing and many others jubilant that their man won. It will however feel, to some neutrals, like a bout that lost some shine due to the fact it took so long to get it done.
Anyway now that's out of the way lets look at what makes this bout so special. Firstly you have the two most popular fighters of their era and two men who have, essentially, been viewed as each others nemesis. Their achievements are both through the roof with world titles across a wide range of divisions. They are the two biggest draws in the sport, and among the very biggest draws across all of sport. Culturally they are different, they appeal to different sections of boxing fans yet they have both made themselves cross over stars. To many this bout is boxing's equivalent to the ultimate “good guy” Vs “bad guy” battle. Most importantly however they are seen not as contrasting men outside of the ring but also as contrasting men inside the ring. One has been a slippery counter puncher, a man who is so elusive in the ring that many describe him as the greatest defensive fighter ever whilst the other is an offensive buzzsaw who sliced through many of the sports premier names in destructive fashion.
Is that's last point that makes this bout what is it is. The best defensive fighter against one of the best offensive fighters. On paper we will find what is ultimately better, a sensational offence or a near unbreakable defense.
In the eyes of many Mayweather is the “bad guy” of boxing. He has spent time in jail and been involved in various out of the ring activities. He has happily told us he's “The Best Ever” and although incredibly talented he has made many fans tune in to see him lose. On the other hand he's an example of what boxing is truly about, he's a master in the sweet science and one of the best at hitting and not being hit. We won't pretend he's the most exciting fighter on the planet but it is magical to see him at his best, slipping shots and landing laser like counters, rolling the shoulder to just avoid a blow and making an opponent pay for having the gall to try and hit him.
Whilst Mayweather isn't evil he has happily painted himself into the corner of being the man many pay to hate. He is, to use a wrestling term, a “heel” and it's a role that he seems to be happy with having. It's a role that's allowed him to make so much money that he now goes by the moniker of “Money”.
To those same fans Pacquiao is the “good guy”, he's the family man, a man of the people and a national icon who has set his intentions on making a difference via the politics of his homeland. He has used his money to help his countrymen and has come across as a humble person, happy to be able to use his talent to further the lives of those less fortunate. Not only has he been a positive person outside of the ring but inside of it he is known for giving fans what they want with destructive performances of aggression. In terms of excitement there are few who can match the excitement Pacquiao has generated over he course of his career with his combinations, knockouts and brutal beat downs.
Again to use a wrestling analogy Pacquiao is the “baby face” though that's a role that he's formed more organically that Mayweather's “heel” persona. Pacquiao has become a by simply being a personable person as opposed to telling the world that he's a nice person.
The contrasts however go on and on. For example Mayweather is happy to tell the world he's his own boss, Pacquiao on the other hand has been open about being a fighter with Bob Arum as his boss. In many ways the only things they have in common is their chosen profession and their claim to being an all-time great.
When it comes to the actual fight we expect the action to start slowly. Whilst the men are massively different they are both respectful of their opponent. Neither man wants to make a mistake early. For the first few rounds it will be a frustrating affair to watch with neither man really letting their offense go. For Mayweather that's perfect in many ways with the fight being fought more at his pace, it will however limit his eye catching counters with Pacquiao giving fewer opportunities that than the American would have hoped for. Whilst Pacquiao will be able to frustrate Mayweather by being restrained he won't be imposing himself or his style, at least not from the off.
We expect the pace to heat up from round 4. That's typically the point where Mayweather begins to find his groove but also the point in the fight where Pacquiao will have to come alive. From then on we're expecting to see the great bursts of Pacquiao's offense against Mayweather's great defense. The bursts of 4 or 5 shots will keep Mayweather in his defensive shell, though openings will begin to appear in Pacquiao's defense. From then on things will become very interesting with both men unsure how the judges will score things. Will they be scoring for Pacquiao, who will be the aggressor, or for Mayweather who will be landing the better shots? That is anyone's guess and it's what will make the latter part of the fight so interesting.
Mayweather's biggest problem in recent fights has been his habit of cruising through rounds, especially late on. At 38 his energy isn't going to be what it once was and although he has great stamina he has been able to fight at his own pace against fighters with slow foot movement. Against Pacquiao he'll be rushed, he won't have the time to take a breather and he'll be fighting someone with similar footspeed. If he tries to take rounds off here it will bite him. Instead we expect Mayweather will have to fight for at least 2 minutes of every round and that will show later on as both men bite down on their gum shields and try to force the judges hands. We'll see Mayweather fighting more than he has done in years and we'll Pacquiao showing some of the fire many thought was gone.
We suspect that, come the final bell, it'll be anyone's guess as to who has done enough. Fans will back “their man” and feel like their guy has just done enough. Of course however it'll lay on the judges and we'd not be shocked to see any type of scorecards. That's partly because boxing throws up some weird scorecards and also partly the fact that we can see how both men win.
As a prediction we will edge with the younger man, Pacquiao to take a razor thin and highly controversial decision. The bout, whilst good, will fail to live up to expectation in the ring and although records will be shattered we won't be able to help but think it was this generation's Hagler Vs Leonard as opposed to the real mega fighter it could have been. Strangely we see the post-fight outcome also mirroring the Hagler Vs Leonard bout with Mayweather retiring after the contest, something we'd also expect him to do if he won.
World Title Previews
The biggest fights get broken down as we try to predict who will come out on top in the up coming world title bouts.