On December 7th we'll see IBF Super Flyweight champion Jerwin Ancajas (31-1-2, 21) defending his title against Chilean challenger Miguel Gonzalez (31-2, 8), in what will be Ancajas's 8th defense of the title. The bout is another underwhelming opponent choice for Ancajas, but a defend-able one after a bout in November fell through due to visa issues for his opponent, and this was put together on relatively short notice.
The Filipino has had one of the longest active reigns in the sport, winning the title more than 3 years ago, but it has been a very mixed reign with a lot of disappointment. He has great looked at times, and really made the most of fight against Teiru Kinoshita on a Manny Pacquiao under-card, but also looked awful at times, such as hie draw a year ago against Alejandro Santiago Barrios. More disappointing than his actual performances has been his competition, and his 7 challengers have not been the best. Sure he has had 3 mandatory challengers, but the other opponents, including Gonzalez here, have been poor limited opposition in what is a legitimately tough division. We could accept 1 or 2 easy defenses, but this is now defense number 8 and patience is wearing thin.
Whilst his competition hasn't been great Ancajas himself, is legitimately a top, top fighter in the Super Flyweight division. He's up there, in the mix, with the likes of WBA champion Kal Yafai, and equally frustrating champion, former champion Donnie Nietes and WBO champion Kazuto Ioka. We see him being behind the likes of Juan Francisco Estrada and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, but he's in the chasing pack.
Blessed with one of the most naturally eye pleasing styles in the sport Ancajas is genuine exceptional. He's a clean, sharp punching boxer, with more than enough sting on his shots to get respect at world level. He's not a banger but he sets a good, high work rate, and breaks opponents down with a constant stream of solid shots. Technically he's solid, though not elite, and is not going to be an easy man to beat.
As for Gonzalez the Chilean becomes the first world challenger from his homeland in years, but sadly it would take a huge upset for him to become a champion.
Gonzalez was once tipped as a star. He won his first 17 in a row before taking a step up and being widely out boxed by Paul Butler 2013, in London, England. A second winning run saw him move his record to 29-1, before being stopped, earlier this year, by the excellent Andrew Moloney in a WBA world title eliminator. Despite a couple of win since that loss, it's hard to defend him getting a world title fight at this point in time.
Don't get us wrong, Gonzalez is a skilled boxer. Sadlty though he lacks in the areas that a world level fighter typically needs to have. Notably he lacks power. At world level fighters will simply be able to walk though his pitty-patty shots, and land the more eye catching blows. He can't get respect of his opponents, and unlike a fighter Ivan Calderon, he isn't impossible to hit clean. Instead he's skilled, but not elite level skilled, and solid fighters, like Butler, can out box him.
We see this being a painful night for Gonzalez. He'll be there to win and represent Chile, but in reality, we suspect he'll be broken down and stopped in the second half of the fight, as Ancajas' consistency overwhelms him, and simply leaves the challenger a broken man in need of saving.
Prediction - TKO9 Ancajas
December 7th is a huge day for boxing, one of the biggest and most significant days of the year so far. We have huge shows in Saudi Arabia and New York, and other shows of note in Tokyo and Quebec, in what will be a fantastic day for fight fans. One of the many bouts of note for us is an IBF "interim" Super Bantamweight world title fight which will pit two former Asian world champions against each other in a genuinely fantastic match up. In fact despite a lot of bigger bouts taking place through the day, this might be the best of the bouts taking place.
In one corner will be former WBO Bantamweight champion Marlon Tapales (33-2, 16) whilst his opponent will be former IBF Super Bantamweight champion Ryosuke Iwasa (26-3, 16). On paper this has the hall marks of something very, very special. Not only are both fighters proven at world level, but stylistically they should make for an action packed fight with styles that should gel perfect.
The 27 year old Tapales, from the Philippines, is an aggressive, come forward fighter who fights out of the southpaw stance. Despite only being 5'4" he's proven to be a strong an awkward fighter to catch clean, and he also boasts a very misleading KO record. On paper he has a sub 50% stoppage rate, but that is due to the early part of his career. At one point he was 10-1 (2) at later on he was 26-2 (9). Since then he has gone 7-0 (7) and scored his 3 biggest wins, stopping Shohei Omori, twice, and Pungluang Sor Singyu.
Although Tapales isn't a huge name in the sport he is one the true dark horses, even in a division full of dark horses like the current Super Bantamweight division. He's a fighter who applies smart pressure, counters well and whilst he doesn't set an amazing work rate, he's certainly not late. As well being an under-rated puncher he is also incredibly tough, and the we he beat Pungluang, picking him self up after 2 knockdowns to win, shows his will to win. Technically he is flawed, rough around the edges, and sometimes a bit wild, but given his power and toughness he does make the wildness work for him.
Aged 29 Iwasa has been groomed for success since turning professional back in 2008, following a solid amateur career. In his 8th fight he secured himself a Japanese Bantamweight title fight at the following year's Champion Carnival, and although he lost in that title fight he impressed with an ultra-competitive bout against Shinsuke Yamanaka. By the end of 2011 he was the Japanese national champion and would become an OPBF Bantamweight champion in December 2013. Sadly Iwasa would come up short in a 2015 world title fight, to Lee Haskins, but a move up in weight rejuvenated his career.
In 2017 Iwasa finally won a big one, stopping Yukinori Oguni to claim the IBF Super Bantamweight in what was, by far, the best performance of his career so far. Sadly following was a great win over Oguni Iwasa would disappoint, winning with a clear but disappointing performance against Ernesto Saulong. The disappointing performance with Saulong was followed by Iwasa losing the IBF title to TJ Doheny. Thankfully Iwasa managed to bounce back with a win on his US debut against Cesar Juarez, in a bout that promised a lot but was overlooked by broadcasters who failed to show the fight.
At his best, Iwasa is a hard hitting southpaw boxer-puncher. Sadly though he has never looked good against fellow southpaws, with 2 of his 3 losses coming to pure southpaws, and the other coming to a switch hitter who is predominantly a southpaw boxer. That is a huge issue here against a hard hitting southpaw like Tapales, and we think that will likely be the key here.
We've seen Tapales beat southpaws, and we've seen Iwasa lose to southpaws. We think that Iwasa's weakness to southpaws will be shown up again here, and Tapales will take out Iwasa in the second half of the fight.
Prediction - TKO11 Tapales
Earlier this month we saw the WBC, WBA and IBF Bantamweight titles being fought for in Japan, with some excellent bouts in Saitama. The one missing belt from that show was the WBO belt which will be fought for at on November 30th when WBO champion Zolani Tete (28-3, 21) takes on WBO "interim" champion John Riel Casimero (28-4, 19). On paper this looks a fantastic bout, between two men with very similar records, but very different styles, and very different mentalities, but both men will be looking to state their case as a future opponent for WBSS winner Naoya Inoue.
South African fighter Tete was part of the WBSS when it started in 2018. He struggled in his first bout, a stinker against former amateur standout Mikhail "Misha" Aloyan, before pulling out of his semi final against Nonito Donaire due to an injury. That injury has meant Tete has been out of action for over a year and is more than 2 years removed from his explosive win over Siboniso Gonya. As a result of injury and a couple of poor performances Tete has gone from being one of the top dogs at Bantamweight, to an almost forgotten man and the 31 year old desperately needs an impressive performance.
Stood at 5'9" and fighting out of the Southpaw stance Tete is an awkward Bantamweight. He's all arms and legs and when he's on point he's a real nightmare. He's skilled, tough, quick and a very sharp puncher. His KO win over Paul Butler in 2015 showed just how good he can be. Sadly though he's awkward, and we don't just mean an awkward fighter for opponents. He can, when he's not firing at 100%, be very awkward to watch and safety conscious. He showed that side of himself against Arthur Villanueva and Omar Andres Narvaez, and didn't look much better against Aloyan either, in what really was a stinker.
Whilst Tete is a long, rangy, boxer-puncher Casimero is the opposite. The 30 year old Filipino is a short, relatively wild, puncher-come-slugger. When he's in the mood to box, he can box, but all too often Casimero fights with the intention of taking his opponents, out, and do so quickly. He has scored 6 stoppages in his last 7 bouts, and during his long career he has stopped the likes of Cesar Canchila, Luis Alberto Lazarte, Amnat Ruenroeng and Charlie Edwards. Not only has he been a slugger, but he is also one of the sports best road warriors, with wins all over the place. From Nicaragua to Thailand, from Panama to China, from the UK to the Argentina, Casimero has never shown any fear of being in his opponents back yard.
At 5'4" Casimero is a small Bantamweight, he will be giving away significant size and reach to most fighters in the division. In part that's down to the fact this is actually his 4th weight class, with Casimero having first won a world title at Light Flyweight, before claiming one at Flyweight. He failed to reach the top at Super Flyweight but has managed to make a mark at Bantamweight with his interim title win, and a defense of that title. He has certainly has looked rejuvenated, after a terrible outing against Jonas Sultan back in 2017.
Coming in to the bout the logical view is that Tete will be too quick, too sharp, too long, too quick and too smart. We however feel that the poor performances of Tete recently, added to the injury and time out could end up being a major issue here. Casimero isn't a polished boxer, but he is a puncher, he is aggressive and he is a nightmare for someone with ring rust.
We suspect that Tete will start well, but as the bout goes on Casimero's power punching and pressure will take it's toll as Tete slows down and turns off. We suspect the power of Casimero will eventually break down the South African and take a late win.
Prediction - TKO11 Casimero
One of the big break outs from Asia in the last 12 months or so is Chinese fighter Can Xu (17-2, 3) who hadn't made his US debut until September 2018 but has since become a fighter with a genuine feel good story, an exciting style and a a charming personality. It's those traits that saw him win over fight fans in December, when he claimed the WBA "regular" Featherweight title with an upset win over Jesus M Rojas in Houston.
On November 23rd Xu returns to the US to make his second defense of the title, as he takes on the unbeaten Manny Robles III (18-0, 8) in what looks set to be a very fun fight between two men who aren't known for their power, but should be capable of putting on a real action fight.
In January the then 24 year old Xu, who is now 25, became the first Chinese man to win a world title by dethroning someone. Whilst the belt was only the "regular" title it was still an historical first for Chinese boxing. The fact he did it against a feared puncher like Rojas, and seemed to beat Rojas at his own game, of making fights a war, just just even more impressive. He pushed Rojas and down the stretch he out worked Rojas in one of the many forgotten thrillers of 2019. He would return to the ring 4 months later and stop former WBA Super Bantamweight champion Shun Kubo in China.
Although not a big puncher Xu is a real danger man. He's physically very strong, has an incredible work rate and toughness, and overwhelms opponents. His power isn't as much of an issue as some would suspect, though it is worth noting he has stopped 3 of his last 5 after failing to score a single stoppage in his first 14 bouts. Given his style we do expect him to grind people down in the later stages of 10 and 12 rounds, where he simply grinds the fight out of them.
Robles, like Xu, is 25 years old and isn't known for his power though that's not to say he can't punch, just that his power really isn't his strength. He's technically a cute boxer, with a nice jab, nice work on the inside and good pressure. His work rate is a lot less than that of Xu but it's also a lot more clearly defined. At his heart he looks to be a fighter who sometimes gets lost between two styles though, not sure if he should be a warrior on the inside or a boxer on the outside and this is certainly going to be an issue as he takes on fighters who know their own identity and fight their own styles.
Whilst the fighting identity of Robles is an issue he also doesn't appear to have the greatest of engines. Both of his completed 10 rounds have seen him only just manage to get over the line with split decisions. If you can't punch and your engine isn't great you're going to be in real trouble against Xu. Notably Robles has also only had 10 rounds of in ring action over the last year, with ring rust being another potential issue for the American challenger.
Although Robles is a talented fighter we see Xu just being too big, too strong and too hungry. Xu will drag Robles into his fight, and we have seen Robles dragged into a war before, and out work him. The bout will test Robles' toughness though we wouldn't be surprised at all if that toughness wasn't enough to see him survive the 12 rounds with the Chinese "Monster".
The pressure, work rate and strength of Xu will be too much, especially down the stretch.
Prediction- TKO11 Xu
World Title Previews
The biggest fights get broken down as we try to predict who will come out on top in the up coming world title bouts.