20 Predictions for 2020: PREDICTION number 6 - DAZN to remain a minor player Japanese boxing market11/30/2019 As we head towards a new year we've decided to look into our glass balls, our tea leaves and our palms to come up with 20 predictions which will be posted over the coming weeks for what we think will happen in 2020. So far our predictions haven't been the best though they've not all been wrong. In 2013 we predicted that Naoya Inoue, his brother Takuma and Kosei Tanaka would all win world titles. Between them they've won a few world titles, though Takuma has yet to win a proper world title. That same year we also predicted a growth in Chinese boxing, and this arguably happened despite the fact the Macau side of things has died off. We also predicted a growth in Asian fighters making a name for themselves in the US, this was before Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, Naoya Inoue or Kazuto Ioka had fought on US soil, and before the wave of Uzbek's had began to attract US attention. Unlike the past, where we have made all of our predictions in 1 article, we'll be spreading these ones out with 1 prediction per article, and going more in depth than we have in the past.  Prediction number 6 - DAZN to remain a minor player Japanese boxing market
In the DAZN USA have become one of the major services to watch boxing on, rivalling ESPN, Showtime and Fox Sports. It's a service that has received a lot of media attention, both positive and negative, and is something that has, mostly, been a positive for boxing in the US, and some other regions. Whilst their are calls for DAZN UK to begin sooner rather than later, due to what it offers and the lack of PPV shows, there are countries where the boxing content of the service has been woefully lacking. That's been particularly notable in Japan. Firstly let us start this by pointing out there has been boxing on DAZN Japan, there has been some pretty big bouts on their such as Ryota Murata's first bout with Rob Brant, Jamie Munguia against Takeshi Inoue and TJ Doheny against Ryohei Takahashi. That however is about it for DAZN fights featuring Japanese fighters. They've had other boxing content, but in reality with out Japanese fighters being shown on the service it's going to be very, very difficult for the service to build momentum in a market place where boxing is available on terrestrial TV, and traditional satellite channels, such as WOWOW and G+. What DAZN has done well in Japan is offer a lot of content, with J League football, or Soccer for our American readers, and Nippon Professional Baseball being among their big hits. They do have deals with UFC and Golden Boy and Matchroom, but the reality is that the shows aren't geared to the Japanese audience, and even then some of the content you would expect to be on DAZN Japan isn't. A great example being the upcoming Andy Ruiz Vs Anthony Joshua rematch, which will be on WOWOW. Another example is the WBSS, which was available on free TV, though Fuji, 8K TV, though BS8K, and through WOWOW on tape delay. There has long been talk of Matchroom Sport and Eddie Hearn planting a flag in Japanese boxing. The reality however is that it's a very complicated market, and DAZN aren't going to be the platform to shake things up in Japan. The countries biggest stars are on free TV, with Fuji TV and TBS being the biggest players in the Japanese TV market, that's where the viewers are, and it will be very, very difficult to pull fighters from free TV. Whilst like channels like Fuji TV and TBS are free to watch they are commercial channels, and they have seen the audiences they can draw. Those numbers dwarf the numbers that DAZN reportedly have in terms of subscribers, worldwide. The issue for DAZN could get even more tricky if prediction #5, NHK becoming a major force in Japanese boxing, comes true. If that happens DAZN will struggle to make a mark post Tokyo 2020 in terms of signing up Japanese Olympians. The prediction here is simple, but one that really seems obvious. DAZN Japan will struggle to make a mark in the Japanese boxing scene, in 2020 and 2021. In fact it could be a very, very long time before this changes.
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As we head towards a new year we've decided to look into our glass balls, our tea leaves and our palms to come up with 20 predictions which will be posted over the coming weeks for what we think will happen in 2020. So far our predictions haven't been the best though they've not all been wrong. In 2013 we predicted that Naoya Inoue, his brother Takuma and Kosei Tanaka would all win world titles. Between them they've won a few world titles, though Takuma has yet to win a proper world title. That same year we also predicted a growth in Chinese boxing, and this arguably happened despite the fact the Macau side of things has died off. We also predicted a growth in Asian fighters making a name for themselves in the US, this was before Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, Naoya Inoue or Kazuto Ioka had fought on US soil, and before the wave of Uzbek's had began to attract US attention. Unlike the past, where we have made all of our predictions in 1 article, we'll be spreading these ones out with 1 prediction per article, and going more in depth than we have in the past.  Prediction number 5 - NHK to become a major player in boxing
Way, way back in Japanese boxing history national broadcaster NHK were a major broadcaster of the sport, showing many of the early champions of Japan. As the years went on domestic commercial TV put money into the sport and repelled NHK from the market place, with the channel rarely showing professional boxing afterwards. They weren't totally done with the sport, but they had quickly gone from a major player to a minor player, showing occasional amateur tournament finals and little else, in fact only a few days ago they showed the the 89th All Japan Boxing Championship on their BS1 service. Things began to change in 2019 when NHK showed 8K coverage of the WBSS Bantamweight final between Naoya Inoue and Nonito Donaire, and they will repeat the 8K experiment in December when they show Ryota Murata's bout with Steven Butler, also on their 8K channel BS8K. The WBSS Bantamweight final was the first ever bout to be shown live in 8K and whilst that was partly a gimmick it did come with suggestion to the media that NHK would be getting back into the boxing game properly in 2020. If that happens, and we now have every reason to believe it will, then TV boxing in Japan is set to have a massive change. Unlike every other TV channel in Japan NHK is publicly funded, similar to how BBC is run in the UK, and has notable international arms, with their NHK World service. They also run both terrestrial TV, NHK General and NHK Educational in Japan, and satellite TV, NHK BS1 and NHK BS Premium, also with ultra high definition channels NHK BS4K and NHS BS8K. Their service, potentially, offers a fighter a chance to appeal right across the country in a way no other service does. If a fighter can fight on NHK General they are instantly going to be given the largest potential audience of any fighter in the country. When we already know that Naoya Inoue and Ryota Murata can draw multi-million viewer audiences in Kanto, we can only begin to imagine what a fighter could, potentially, draw on NHK from across Japan. Two other things also help back up the prediction of NHK becoming a major player. One is that they have certain high ranking officials who now believe sports can be a major part of their programming. The other is much bigger and more obvious. They have the Tokyo 2020 rights, and can obviously help a young fighter from the Olympics roll that momentum into professional success. If a fighter wants to make an immediate, national impact after the games then NHK are surely the way to go, and they could quickly become a massive force for good for Japanese boxing. Our prediction is that by the end of 2020 NHK will have shown professional boxing on both a terrestrial channel and a satellite channel, as well as their amateur boxing content, which will include the 2020 All Japan Championship and the Olympics. One of the areas of professional boxing that has started to get more and more attention in recent years has been Japan, thanks in a big part to Naoya Inoue's growing success, and the great work CBC have done in making Kosei Tanaka fights widely available. Whilst a lot of the emerging Japanese talent is competing in the lower weight classes it doesn't change the fact the country is over-flowing with talented youngsters all looking to make their name and become one of the countries next big stars. With that in mind it seems the perfect time to try and predict who will be the next big Japanese star, and bring attention to 5 of Japan's brightest young prospects.
Although Shigeoka has only had 4 bouts it's impossible not to be impressed by what he has shown. He's an aggressive yet intelligent fighter, he presses well, has amazingly crisp punches, switches between head and body with ease and has nasty spiteful power, something we don't often see at 105lbs. Going forward the one issue will be a question of how much weight he can add to his frame, and at just over 5' he likely doesn't have the frame to hit the weights which get Western attention. Still he looks like a nailed future world champion, and we're really excited to see how his brother, Yudai Shigeoka goes with his career as well.
Kuwahara began his career as a Light Flyweight, but has now moved up to the Flyweight division and the reality is that he's grown into the 112lb weight class. It's fair to say Flyweight is currently a division that lacks in terms of depth, unlike Light Flyweight and Super Flyweight, and there's no reason why Kuwahara can't have a big 2020 and pick up a national or regional title as he climbs towards a potential world title fight in the next year or two.
Nakano looks to be a man with a real understanding of the ring, understands his advantages, and how to use them effectively. He's a very sharp puncher, a smart boxer and although he's certainly not untouchable he minimises the effect of shots when he has to take them. Fighting out of the Teiken gym it's clear he's getting top sparring, and with Kenichi Ogawa, Masaru Sueyoshi and Shuya Masaki there is real talent at the Featherweight and Super Featherweight divisions in the gym. Unlike many youngsters Nakano isn't in love with his power, but knows how to deliver it to head and body.
Although not a big puncher Iwata looks to have enough power in his shots to get the respect of his opponents, and combines that with brilliant footwork, handspeed, movement and a very smart boxing brain. There is obviously a feeling that he will be moved quickly, as most promising Japanese fighters are in the lower weights, and he's already in the JBC rankings, however we don't expect him to be fighting for a title for another year or two due to the depth at 108lbs.
Suzuki looked fantastic on debut, showing great composure, defense, stamina and clean punching to beat the dangerous Antonio Siesmundo last November. Since then he has notched 2 more wins, taking a decision over Filipino Kelvin Tenorio and stopping Kosuke Arioka. After just 3 fights he is already ranked by both the OPBF and the JBC and has proven to a be a strong fighter 140lb, never mind 135lbs. Limiting this list to 5 was incredibly difficult, given the likes of Ryota Yamauchi, Yuki Yamauchi, Seiya Tsutsumi, Rikito Shiba, Shu Utsuki, Tomoya Ishii, Kuntae Lee, Ryu Horikawa and so many others. What this proves, more than anything, is the depth in Japan and the future is very, very bright for fight fans in the Land of the Rising Sun.
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