The Hot Take: Another rant about PPV's

9/26/2020

Later today we'll see the return of PPV boxing to Showtime as the channel puts on it's first PPV event since boxing was shut down earlier this year due to the on going global situation. On paper the card is a stacked one with 5 world title fights, and it's being marketed as a double-header PPV. On paper it ticks a lot of boxes, but will it be a success of failure? Is it too soon to be back asking, cap in hand, for fans to fund the sport with the almost archaic PPV model? Is the price point right? Have Showtime, and the fighters, judged the feeling of a nation? Have the journalists, who have been highly negative, been able to puncture the sales?

Whilst we can't answer those questions we can certainly attempt to discuss the PPV, and query whether it will be a success or not. And also what the future may bring for PPV if this is a success, or a failure.

Also before we begin, we need to admit this is a bit of a stream of consciousness from our collective minds.

Whats different with this PPV?
There are several things that make this PPV different to a typical PPV in boxing. Firstly it's a deep card, it goes against the tried and tested argument that "no one care about the undercard" by stacking the card, giving it a chance to look more like value than a single main event card with a rather low key, low quality under-card of mismatches. In theory this means the card spreads the load a lot more evenly than a typical PPV.

Typically we see a PPV sold on, and depend on, the main event. This tends to mean the main event is not just the selling factor but the factor the entire card is judged on, both before hand and afterwards.

To sell those PPV's shows tend to focus on a star. Someone like Floyd Mayweather Jr or Manny Pacquiao. Going further back Oscar De La Hoya or Mike Tyson. These were bankable names that would draw casual fan interest. Their bouts were the ones fans tuned in for.

For this one, fans are expected to tune in for depth of the show, not for a single name. There is no out and out bankable star on the card. Some will argue that Charlo twins, as a package, could be deemed bankable, but in reality that's pretty unproven, especially at PPV level. With 5 title bouts the show is looking to promote it's self on depth, at least in theory.

Has this been marketed right?
Interestingly whilst fans are talking about the depth of the show it should be noted that much of the promotional art work, such as online banners have focused on the two Charlo's. It may have been a wiser idea to try to sell the show on all 5 title bouts rather than the twins. Doing so could have made the card look like value to the casual fans, and also helped push the idea that their opponents are dangerous.

If you are reading this, you are a boxing fan. You know that Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Jeison Rosario are good fighters, you do not need to be told that, but if you're a casual fan looking at the art work, it's essentially looking like a show case.

We dare say had the visual creative been a bit smarter we could, potentially, have seen more wider spread fan interest.

Is it a good card?
On paper this looks like one of the cards of the year. It gives us 5 world title bouts, including a 3 title unification bout and one of the best possible match ups at Middleweight.

Looking a little deeper however it's one that the bookies don't have pegged for having a single 50-50 bout on it. From the 6 main bouts the most competitive, with the bookies, is the Middleweight bout between Jermall Charlo and Derevyanchenko. Even that sees the favourite going in at 4/7.

The others bouts see the favourites as clear favourites. Jermell Charlo is 2/9 to beat Jeison Rosario, Luis Nery is 1/20 to beat Aaron Alameda, John Riel Casimero is 1/7 to beat Duke Micah, Daniel Roman is 1/12 to beat Juan Carlos Payano, and Brandon Figueroa is 1/33 to beat Damien Vazquez. They hardly look like compelling 50-50 bouts here.

Also worth noting is that whilst there are 5 world title bouts on the show they lack in terms of distinguished champions. For example John Riel Casimero is making his first defense, Luis Nery Vs Aaron Alameda is for a vacant title, Jermell Charlo and Jeison Rosario are making their first defense, albeit in a triple title unification bout and Brandon Figueroa is making his second defense.

That's not to say the bouts aren't good. We absolute love the look of Jermall Charlo Vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko, and think that could be a FOTY contender, and Jermell Charlo Vs Jeison Rosario gets a thumbs up from us as we love title unifcation bouts. Howevere expect Daniel Roman, Luis Nery, Brandon Figueroa and John Riel Casimero to make light work of their opponents. Though we do expect all 4 bouts to be fun watches, as the 4 big favourites do tend to be fun to watch, and all have a point to prove. For example Daniel Roman was essentially ignored by Eddie Hearn, despite back to back FOTY contenders, and John Riel Casimero wants to make a statement given the situation with Naoya Inoue.

Two great bouts on a card is more than we've come to expect of boxing. And 4, potentially, fun to watch bouts is a real bonus.

Of course we're looking forward, and there is a real chance the in ring action proves to be much better, and more competitive, than we expect.

Is the price high?
Yes.

The argument is that this is a standard price PPV, which is true, that doesn't mean it's not high. It just means the standard is high. The argument is that people smarter than us have worked out the sweet spot in terms of pricing, and they may be right. This may provide the best income given price and sales. In reality though it's still high, especially given the lack of proving selling power of the Charlo brothers, the relatively unknown status of their opponents, and the fact that the supporting card is at the lower weights.

Also we are not living in standard times. We don't need to explain that there's a gloval issue affecting everyone. That has lead to unemployment increases in the US, and even people in safe jobs will be looking at stretching their budgets more than usual. They could well have gone from thinking $75 is fine the questioning whether it's something they are willing to buy. We've also seen general sports numbers dropping in recent weeks, and that's certainly not a good sign for boxing.

Also we need to consider that PPV parties will not be happening in the same volume as normal. No longer will people be chipping in $15 and taking their booze to watch it together, decreasing the price per viewer. Now it's a case that if you want it, pay for it. A stinger for some, who view sport as escapism and now can't afford it.

We also need to consider UFC, which is set to be shown opposite the Showtime card, is $64.99. A combat sport fan deciding on which they'll pay for will almost certainly go for the cheaper option. Even someone who is more inclined to boxing generally, may end up order UFC to save themselves a bit of change.

In fact ESPN are doing a price bundle for ESPN+ for a year, with UFC253 for $84.98 for new customers. That bundle could really harm the the Showtime numbers, with boxing fans likely now aware ESPN+ is showing regular boxing content.

It's also worth noting that the WWE have their "Clash of Champions" show on Sunday and may also get some fans interested, preferring to spend $10 a month on WWE to $75 on boxing.

What if this is a success?
We suspect the number for a "success" is lower than a typical PPV, but given their competition, the unemployment situation, the price point, and the lack of a bankable star the numbers here could be a rather rather disappointing. And that would be a shame. Honestly it would be a massive shame, and it would, sadly, "prove a point", or rather several.

A low number could back up the argument that no one cares about the under-card. We strongly disagree with this point, but it could be used as evidence that they could have just ran a Charlo twin show, with a garbage under-card and it would have done just as well.

It could also "prove" that boxing is dying, afterall 5 world title fights and the sport can't sell. We can all imagine the grin on Dana White's face if this is a flop.

It would also show that the Charlo brothers, although talented fighters, aren't the bankable stars that some seem to suggest. They are interesting fighters outside of the ring, they tend to be fun inside it, and they rub some people up just enough that they will have some people buying to see them lose, as well as plenty seeing them win and others just wanting to see a fight. But they probably aren't "bankable" enough to lead a PPV.

If this is successful we could see more double header PPV's and split PPV's, which is a nice idea, and hopefully a successful one. After all we get better shows as fans!

Do we expect a success?
Sadly not. We think the in ring action will be great, but we don't see the show doing the numbers that the fighters and broadcaster would be wanting. If we're right it may mean that Showtime take a look at things. They may realise the price point needs a reset during these tough economic times. They can then use that to their advantage going forward, pushing for a $49.99 price, and seeing how that works. If the big complaint is the price, then maybe, just maybe, listen to the fans and find what they deem acceptable.

Even marketing a lower price, say $69.99 or $59.99 may have been a smart idea here given the lack of PPV parties, and the global situation.

How have the media reacted?
Well generally the media have been overly harsh complaining about the price, without really giving the card credit. The card is a good one, even if only two bouts are genuine likely to be competitive, they are two damn good fights!

Also credit needs to be given to Showtime for at least attempting a PPV in this environment, whether that bites them on the ass or not is yet to be seen.

A lot of the media have been dismissive of the card whilst papering over the fact UFC is also on PPV. The truth is that some have almost ignored the fact one is PPV and the other isn't and that isn't fair at all. If they wanted to suggest the pricing of the UFC card in comparison to the boxing at leats that would be consistent.

There also seems to be a wider opinion that the Charlo brothers aren't worthy of interest, and that they have been matched softly and the such. Whether that is true or false is actually irrelevant here, they are taking on legitimately top level opponents here and they should be applauded for that. Likewise their opponents should also be applauded for taking the fights as well.

The show is a good one on paper. We have our doubts that all the bouts will deliver, but even then we are pretty confident of getting 2 really good fights and some fan friendly bouts. It would have been great to see big name writers at least talking about the positives.

Instead we saw one notable writer talk about "Showtime PPV's ridiculous cost" and that it would be "extremely lucky to hit 100,000 buys." In reality the price is high, because the standard PPV price is high, this hasn't been an increase in price.

We don't expect the media to be all positive, we're not and boxing fan in general aren't, but it would be nice to have more balance from the media.

A final word on PPV's
We do feel the PPV market is doomed. It's a market that depends on stars, but boxing in countries with PPV hasn't been developing stars in recent years. It lacks the next face of the sport. We can all see fighters who "could become" the next face, like Gervonta Davis, Ryan Garcia or Devin Haney, but in reality Haney and Garcia are off fighting on DAZN, in front of a small number of fans, and Davis has lost much of the momentum he once head. Errol Spence Jr and the Charlo's themselves are the wrong side of 30 and won't be able to carry the sport for more than a few years, if they can ever connect with the mainstream.

Boxing needs to appeal to a younger fanbase. Sadly for PPV providers that younger fan base knows several things. They include "knowing how to stream", and knowing the value of their money. They know that for $75 they can have Netflix, Spotify, Disney +, Amazon Prime and Hulu, and still keep some change in their pockets. Unless boxing can click with the younger generation, it will struggle, badly, to create the next Oscar De La Hoya or the next Mike Tyson.

We've seen US fight fans complain about the influx of Eastern European and Central Asian fighters. We've seen US and UK fans complain about the growth of female boxing. The thing is there are much cheaper for promoters than the US fighters. In a world where money is tight, for promoters and fans, cheaper fighters will get more exposure and chances.

With fewer American eye balls on American fighters, the sport will continue to contract in the US. Those putting on PPV's need to realise that they need to give fans a bone every so often, whether that's a reduced price PPV, a free show or some other idea is yet to be seen. The sport needs to be injected with something new and fresh, and the US, as a leader in boxing, and the leader of PPV consumption, needs to take a look at it's self. Realise it is pricing out not just the fans, but also future potential fighters.

There is a place for PPV, but it needs to be used very sparingly for the foreseeable future.

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