One of the worst things about boing in the last few years has been the sheer number of bouts that have had to be cancelled for one reason or another. Recently Covid19 has caused a lot of mess to planned bouts, but so to have things like visa issues and injuries. One bout that has been cancelled recently is a show down between Filipino icon Manny Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39) and unbeaten American Welterweight star Errol Spence Jr (27-0, 21), in what was set to be one of the boxing highlights of the summer. That was cancelled when Spence was deemed medically unfit to fight. Thankfully however American based Cuban Yordenis Ugas (26-4, 12) shows his fighters mentality and has taken his chance to face Pacquiao in Spences' absence in a bout we'll get this weekend.
Whilst clearly a big step down from what we were expecting, this is still a really good bout, and one with a really interesting sub story, that of the WBA Welterweight "Super" title which was taken from Pacquiao by the WBA last year. The styles should also gel well, and in many ways this could end up being a very fan friendly bout even if Ugas doesn't have the star power than Spence does. Before we talk about what we expect when we get the men in to the ring, we do need to touch on the WBA super title back story. Paquiao won that title in 2019, when he defeated Keith Thurman in a brilliant performance at the age of 40. That was, however, 2 years ago. In early 2021 Pacquiao of the title due to inactivity, during a time when a pandemic forced a lot of fighters to be inactive, and was named champion in Recess. Following Pacquiao being stripped Ugas was upgraded from the Regular champion, something he became in September 2020 with a win over Abel Ramos, to the Super champion, despite having never defended the regular title. Whilst it might seem like a little thing, especially in an era where the WBA pop out titles at an alarming rate, it was still a very questionable decision, especially given that they have not yet had a bout for the regular title since Ugas won it, in September 2020. On to the fighters themselves, it's fair to say that Pacquiao needs no introduction. The Filipino fighter has been a staple of the sport for over 20 years, and has made a name for himself as one of the sports few truly global mega stars. He's been a Filipino hero, a huge international fan favourite, and one of the legends of the sport. His moves through the weights has been remarkable, as has his longevity, and sustained success at the top. He is one of the true greats and has won titles from Flyweight to Light Middleweight, whilst also having a fun style, putting on great fights and beating a string of icons, hall of famers, and modern greats. Sadly at the age of 42, and with 2 years of inactivity, it's really hard to know what Pacquiao has left in the tank, though he did look very good against Keith Thurman, dropping Thurman on route to a decision win. He's not the explosive Phenom that he once was, and is much slower now a days to what he once was, but he's adapted brilliantly, he's still heavy handed, and he knows how to control the tempo of bouts well. He's used his experience, ring craft and the lessons learned in the ring to change his style, and rather than being the explosive dervish of destruction, he's now a more apt, skilled and rounded fighter. In his last few fights he's still looked dangerous, but he's less active and much smarter between the ropes, rather than the risk taking aggressive monster he once was. For years Yordenis Ugas was an over-looked threat in the Light Welterweight and Welterweight divisions, and one of the sports unlucky men. So far 3 of his 4 losses have been split decisions, including one to Shawn Porter, and he's not really had much fortune at all during his career. In fact getting a Pacquiao payday on short notice is the one true bit of luck he's had, and sadly at the age of 35 it may well be too little too late for him to really make the most of. Despite being a hard luck fighter he's become a bit of a fan favourite in recent years, thanks to a mix of his poor luck, and good story, as well as his in ring style and willingness to face anyone any time. During his 30 fight career he has faced numerous unbeaten fighters, and man who were seen as high risk low reward, such as Levan Ghvamichava, Thomas Dulorme and Ray Robinson, and has not been someone willing to turn down a fighter or an opportunity. Something we again see here. Unlike some Cuban fighters, we're looking Guillermo Rigondeaux, Ugas isn't scared of a fight. He's not a true all out war monger, but he's a fighter who has always shown a willingness to go to war when he needs to, and is happy to get on the front foot. He's a smart boxer, and doesn't take too many undue risks, but he's also not going to make fans boo him out of the venue. Instead he's an aggressive, intelligent fighter, who can spoil when he needs to, dig deep when he needs to, and is a fighter who grits his teeth when he's behind, making a lot of his fights very close. Ugas is often in front of his man, using a good jab, pressing forward and fighting a smart, yet exciting style of fight, where punches will be traded, and he does open up with some very nice flurries whilst also being defensively smart. He is however now 35 years old, and we do wonder whether father time, and inactivity, could begin to take a toll on him in the coming years. He's younger than Pacquiao, sure, but he's also not the once in a life time talent that Pacquiao is, and it could be that Ugas has lost more to father time than the Filipino. One thing we're expecting here is a bout that is fought in an exciting manner, even if neither man is a spring chicken. We expect the styles to gel really well, with Ugas intelligently pressuring, and Pacquiao looking to get bursts of shots off before getting out of ring. It won't be an intense fight, we don't think either man has it in them to consistently throw 100 punches in a round, but we do expect some really exciting back and forth moments. Ugas will get to Pacquiao at times, and as the rounds go on the pressure of Ugas will get him more and more success. Sadly for the Cuban we think, by the time he begins to grind down the Filipino, he will have left himself too much to do, as we've seen from him at times in the past, and whilst it will be close, hotly contested and exciting, we suspect Pacquiao will have the rounds in the bank to take home a close, and debated, split decision win. Prediction - SD12 Pacquiao
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This coming Saturday we'll see the next step towards total unification in the Bantamweight division as WBO champion John Riel Casimero (30-4, 21) takes on WBA "regular" champion Guillermo Rigondeaux (20-1-0-1, 13), essentially ridding us of the pointless and meaningless WBA "regular" title in a division with a busy and active "super" champion. Not only is this a major bout for the division, pitting two of the top 10 against each other, but it's also a brilliant match up from a styles perspective and a match up that really could see any number of outcomes. It could see either man being stopped, it could see one many looking his age or it could see the other having his technical flaws picked away at in embarrassing fashion.
For those who follow the lower weights the career of John Riel Casimero is an interesting one. He was from unknown Filipino hopeful, to journeyman, to being in the middle of riot in Argentina, to being back under the radar despite scoring decent wins, then becoming a 2-weight champion. It really wasn't until he stopped Charlie Edwards that European fans became aware of him, and it wasn't until he knocked out Zolani Tete that he broke through to becoming a notable name. That was despite the fact he had already been a 2-weight champion and had beaten the likes of Cesar Canchila Luis Alberto Lazarte, Pedro Guevara, Mauricio Fuentes and Amnat Ruenroeng. Thankfully since beating Tete he has become one of the most interesting fighters in the lower weights, showing off a flamboyant in ring style, a loud and obnoxious attitude, an incredible amount of trolling towards Naoya Inoue, and a personality that really is hard to ignore. He knows he's got some attention, and he seems desperate to keep a hold of it. Through out his career Casimero has never been a technical fighter. He's always relied on being quick, powerful and heavy handed. He is, essentially, and explosive puncher, and has the flaws of an explosive crude puncher. Despite those flaws he's also a fighter no one can overlook, and it only takes a single shot from him to turn a fight around, as we saw against Zolani Tete in 2019. He is dangerous, he's experienced, and like a viper he strikes when opponents least expect it. Despite being experienced however he can be rash, he can be open to counters, he can take risks he doesn't need to and he can also sleep walk through bouts, as we saw against Jonas Sultan. He's unpredictable, inconsistent, and whilst he is a brilliant fighter, he can also be very frustrating at times. Whilst Casimero spent years flying under the radar that was never really the case with Guillermo Rigondeaux. The Cuban turned professional after winning 2 Olympics gold medals and had long been regarded as one of the best amateurs on the planet. He was then moved ultra-aggressively when he began his career, and it was clear that his handlers knew he could be a star he made his professional debut in May 2009 and just 18 months later he beat the very good Ricardo Cordoba for the WBA "interim" Super Bantamweight title. He would win the full version of the title in 2012, and seemed set to become a star. In 2013 he was given a huge bout, facing Nonito Donaire in a WBA/WBO unification bout. It was the door to superstardom, put open for Rigondeaux. The Cuban won, but he didn't put on a show. He instead frustrated fans and the media. His negativity turned fans off, and a follow up defense against Joseph Agbeko saw fans leave the venue, during his main event bout. Since that bout with Agbeko his career has never really recovered. He's been inactive at times, had a career filled with poor decision making, including taking a bout with Vasyl Lomachenko in 2017. Rigondeaux was groomed to be a star, but poor decisions, horrific management, self sabotage and a frustrating style, saw him fall out with almost every power player in the sport. He went from a fighter who should have been a star, to someone fans didn't want to watch, and opponents didn't want to fight. He was high risk, low reward and provided almost nothing to entice opponents into the ring. Even two world titles wasn't enough to help make fights with him in what was a hot, exciting era at Super Bantamweight. In recent fights Rigondeaux has taken more risks, he has been caught more and at 40 he is losing a something. He is however a very intelligent fighter, with a counter punchers mentality. His left hand is vicious, and quick, sharp, and powerful. He has one of the best brains in the sport, some of the best counters in the sport and event at 40 he's lighting lighting sharp. At his best Rigondeaux would have a field day with Casimero. The Cuban would draw leads and avoid them, he'd frustrate Casimero, he's make the Filipino look stupid, rash and like an idiot, before lowering the boom and landing a brutal straight left hand. Casimero would do enough to make the fight watchable, but would be on the wrong end of a beating. Now a days however it's hard to know what Rigondeaux really has has left. We suspect it's no longer enough to beat a genuine world class fighter. In fact we expect one of Casimero's wild, looping shots will catch the Cuban and lead to him falling apart. And we expect that to happen early in the bout. The longer it goes the more and more comfortable Rigondeaux will get, and we expect Casimero and his team will know that they need to jump on the Cuban quickly and not let him off the hook. If this goes past 5 rounds however Casimero will bee getting timed, and potentially being stopped himself. Prediction - Casimero TKO3 On July 31st we'll see the long awaited return of WBA Featherweight champion Can Xu (18-2, 3), who has been out of the ring since beating Manny Robles III way back in November 2019. The exciting, all action, Chinese punching machine will not only be back in the ring in July but will also be making his UK debut as he takes on Englishman Leigh Wood (24-2, 14) in Essex, England. For Xu this bout will be his third defense of the title he won in his break out fight, a January 2019 upset win against Jesus M Rojas, whilst the 32 year old Wood will be fighting in his first world title bout to date.
For those who haven't see Xu he really is a perpetual punching machine. He is the man of nightmares for Compubox operators, and the sort of fighter who throws a lot. His shots never a lot on them in terms of power, but he throws, and lands, that many that fighters end up simply being overwhelmed, and go into a defensive shell, unsure of quite how to fight him. His work rate and engine are ridiculously impressive, and whilst he's not the most technical he's so awkward due to his output that few can really take advantage of his flaws. He's also been blessed with real toughness, and began his career as a Light Welterweight before moving down in weight, showing that he's physically strong as well as tough. He can be be out boxed, at least in spurts, but to do it against him for 12 rounds will be a tough, tough ask of anyone in the sport, and anyone who tries better be willing to walk into shots to get their own off. As mentioned Xu began his career at 140lbs, and he jumped between weights for much of the early part of his career, losing two close decisions in his first 5 bouts. Since then however he has gone 15-0 (3), he has beaten the likes of Hurricane Futa, Chris George, Corey McConnell, Nehomar Cermeno, Jesus M Rokas, Shun Kubo and Manny Robles, to build up a solid, though not startling, resume for himself. He had been hoping for a big 2020, with a potential unification bout against Josh Warrington in the works, before Covid19 put an end to those dreams. Instead of facing Warrington in front of a packed out Elland Road, he instead needs to face Wood in Eddie Hearn's back yard, in front of only a few hundred supposed boxing fans. Whilst Xu has been sat on the outside looking in Wood has actually managed a couple of fights since the end of 2019, include a razor thin loss to James Dickens in February 2020 and a brilliant domestic win over Reece Mould in February of this year. Those bouts shows that Wood was putting on some of the best performances of his career and despite being in his 30's he's still a fight who is improving, growing more confident and putting together really good results. Something he also did in late 2019 when he upset David Oliver Joyce and it really does seem like his slow burn career has started to peak. In the ring Wood is a solid fighter, who has proven himself to be a very good British level, maybe even European level, Featherweight with solid power that carries late into his bouts. He's not the most skilled or the quickest, in fact at times he's a little crude, but he's patient, he's heavy handed, and he throws his right hand with bad intent. As we saw against Reese Mould his shots do genuine damage and whether he's coming forward or going backwards he hits hard enough to get the result of anyone he faces, especially when he lands his straight right hand, or his solid left hook. Sadly though his work rate isn't the best, and against a fighter like Xu we think his lack of consistent, high intensity work, will make it very, very hard for him to impress the judges. His shots will be more meaningful, and much more meaty than Xu, but we suspect he simply won't land enough of them. We think early on Wood will have success, in the first 3 or 4 rounds things will be competitive with Wood holding his own. That'll be until Xu's insane output and work rate begin to turn the fight in his favour and from there on the question won't be who'll win? But instead a case of whether Xu can end up stopping Wood or not. We don't think he will, but we do think Xu will take a very, very wide decision here. The world of boxing is a strange one at times, and in deep divisions we still get some challengers come along who really don't have any right, at all, to be competing for a world title. That just so happens to be the case this coming Saturday in Belgium as we see unknown Chinese fighter Zhaoxin Zhang (10-1-1, 6) face off with WBA Cruiserweight champion Ryad Merhy (29-1, 24) in what looks like a very, very clear case of a lamb being thrown to the slaughter. In fact it looks like one of the worse world title bout to be stages in 2021.
For those who don't follow the Cruiserweight division, the division is one of the more easy to over-look right now. Since Oleksandr Usyk left the division, it's struggled a little bit for an identity. Mairis Briedis is the best of the bunch, but not a lot separate the chasing pack, including Ilunga Makabu, Yuniel Dorticos, Thabiso Mchunu, Lawrence Okolie, Arsen Goulamirian and the aforementioned Merhy. In fact if you throw that group of fighters into a mini tournament, to decide who Briedis should fight in 2022 you'd end up with a brilliant series of fights. They all have power, they can all fight and yet they all have their own styles, some of which are very different to others, with Okolie being a rangy outside fighter and Dorticos being more of a power punching force of nature. When it comes to Merhy himself his only loss came more than 3 years ago to Goulamirian and since then he has bounced back with 5 wins, all by stoppage. He has proven that he's a huge puncher, with a real nasty side to him. He takes a shot well, he comes to fight and although he's not the biggest or the smoothest in the division, he's one of the most exciting and among the most intimidating. He is a fighter who should become the face of Belgian boxing over the next few years, and at 28 he really does have time to make a huge mark on the sport. Aged 25 Zhaoxin Zhang is really an unknown, even among those who follow Chinese boxing. He debuted in 2017 as a Super Middleweight, fighting to a draw and he was 5-1-1 (2) after 7 bouts, with a loss against Zulipikaer Maimaitiali. Since then he has filled out his frame, become a fully fledged Cruiserweight and scored 5 wins in a row. Sadly though they are against, at best, domestic level competition. There is nothing of international significance on his record and nothing to explain why the WBA have got him in their world rankings. In fact Boxrec ranking him at #68 in the division seems like it's still very, very flattering to the Chinese fighter. The most telling bout for Zhang so far came in 2019 when he cased Chase Haley, a much smaller fighter, and still struggled to get the decision, squeaking by with a majority decision win. Through out that bout he looked clumsy, slow, awkward and very fortunate that Haley lacked the power and skills needed to take him out. Given how easy Haley had success against Zhang we really can't see this being anything but a knock over job for Merhy, who can likely finish this as early as he wants. Prediction - Merhy TKO3 On June 19th we'll see Japanese star Naoya Inoue (20-0, 17) return to the ring for his first bout of 2021 as he defends his IBF and WBA "super" titles at Bantamweight, and takes on IBF mandatory challenger Michael Dasmarinas (30-2-1, 20) in Las Vegas. For Inoue this bout serves as his third defense of the unified titles, and sees him look to extend an excellent reign that included winning the WBSS final in 2019 and scoring a fantastic win over Jason Moloney last year. On the other hand the bout also serves as Dasmarinas's first world title bout, outside of IBO "world" title fights, and his US debut, making a huge fight for both men and one that could set the winner up for a massive fight at the end of 2021 against John Riel Casimero or Nonito Donaire.
Coming in to the bout it's fair to say the "Monster" will be close to an unbackable favourite, but is he going to have things all his own way? Or can Dasmarinas manage to ruffle a few feathers and score one of the biggest upsets of 2021? Lets take a look at the fighters and how we see this one going. It's fair to say that Naoya Inoue is almost universally regarded as one of the best fighters on the planet. The 28 year old is already a 3 weight world champion, having won titles at 108lbs, 112lbs and 118lbs, and he has scored some brilliant wins already during his career. Victories over the likes of Ryoichi Taguchi, Adrian Hernandez, Omar Andres Narvaez, Kohei Kono, Jamie McDonnell, Juan Carlos Payano, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Nonito Donaire have seen many regard him, in just 20 bouts, as the greatest Japanese boxer of all time. Whilst others might feel Fighting Harada still outshines him, there really is many others in Japan's long and stories history that match up favourable against the "Monster". In the ring Inoue lives up to the "Monster" tag that he's been dubbed with for years now. He's a huge puncher, with freakish physical strength, an ungodly amount of power in his punches, great movement, stupidly impressive timing, and criminally under-rated boxing skills. When many look at Inoue they see a power puncher, but the reality is that he's an intelligent boxer-puncher, who sets shots up perfectly, finds holes in opponents defenses and exploits them with his timing, speed, boxing brain and positioning. Staying with his offensive work he is also one of, if not the, best body puncher in the sport. Not only is Inoue a great offensive fighter but he's also got solid defensive skills, and when he needs to he's also got a very impressive chin and a real ability to fight through adversity. In fact it's his ability to fight through adversity that takes him from a great fighter to an incredible one, and is something we've seen since his win over Yuki Sano, where he fought much of the bout one handed. We also, notably, saw it against Nonito Donaire, when he fought much of the bout with double vision and a fractured orbital. He has proven that when the going gets tough, he fights through it. He is a scary fighter to face. Dasmarinas on the other hand is much less well known, despite having debuted the same year as Inoue and fighting 13 bouts more than the Japanese star. Whilst part of that is down to what Inoue has done, winning world titles, winnings the WBSS and fighting around the globe, a lot is also down to what Dasmarinas hasn't done. And in reality Dasmarinas hasn't really done much, despite having more than 30 bouts to his name. His real crowning achievement was winning the IBO Bantamweight title in in 2018, when he knocked out Karim Guerfi in brutal fashion, but other than that there isn't too much to talk about on his record. If you want to go through the bones of his record the other notable wins results have been 2014 win over Hayato Kimura, a loss that same year to Lwandile Siyatha, a 2015 win over Jhaleel Payao, a 2018 draw with Manyo Plange and a 2019 win over Kenny Demecillo in an IBF world title eliminator. The reality is that there isn't a lot there. Despite his record being thin Dasmarinas has shown plenty to like. His KO or Guerfi was a KO of the year contender in 2018, his wins against Payao and Demecillo showed that he was a capable fighter, his loss to Siyatha, a controversial one, showed that he could go into enemy territory and his bout with Plange, although a very lucky draw, showed he could take a shot and didn't stop trying. Sadly however those bouts also show one thing, he can be out boxed. In fact Guerfi made it look easy until he was tagged and Plange was really unfortunate not to get the win when he fought Dasmarinas. There was nothing about Dasmarinas' boxing that would worry any world class fighter. He has power, but lacks in terms of skills and often struggles to set that power up properly. Unfortunately Dasmarinas, due to his wait to get his mandatory title fight, has also seen him out of the ring for 20 months, something that will likely leaving him looking rusty and mess up his timing. Despite being limited Dasmarinas does have some things going for him. He's a southpaw, always an advantage, and he's also notable taller than Inoue, by around 2" or 3", with a longer reach and natural size advantages. On paper this should be something that Dasmarinas backers are going to like, however we would dare say this is not an advantage against Inoue. He chews up southpaws and taller men. This was seen when he smashed Narvaez and Payano, both southpaws, and guys like Yoan Boyeaux and Jamie McDonnell, both much bigger men. His body shots are brutal and break down tall guys. With history in mind we suspect that Dasmarinas's success will be very, very limited. Inoue will take a few moments to have a look at the Filipino, then begin to pressure him, going to his body, and look to land single, hard, powerful shots. Breaking down the Filipino. Inoue has suggested he was wanting to break down Dasmarinas, but in all honesty we see the breaking down process being a quick, explosive process, rather than a slow one and wouldn't be surprised if this was over in 3 or 4 rounds. Against a Dasmarinas who has been more active then this, maybe, would have lasted longer, but with his inactivity, and with Inoue wanting to make a statement on his return to the US, this could be over very, very quickly. Prediction - TKO4 Inoue One thing that was undeniable about the boxing scene in 2020, was that it was a year that messed up the calendar, significantly, and saw so many bouts being cancelled or postponed. Due to the effects of Covid19 a lot of major names in the sport either didn't fight at all in 2020, or fought just once, as their careers stagnated for a year. Thankfully it appears that 2021 will be the year that things get back to normal, at least in the last few months of the year.
Two men that were massively affected by the Covid19 pandemic were WBC Bantamweight champion Nordine Oubaali (17-0, 12) and his mandatory challenger Nonito Donaire (40-6, 26), who had a planned bout cancelled when Oubaali tested positive for Covid19. Donaire himself would also test positive for the virus, though it appears his positive test was likely a false positive, as he got a negative response in a confirmatory test that he and his team paid for. With neither man fighting last year, and with Oubaali having a planned March defense cancelled as well, neither man has actually fought since November 2019, when they both featured on the same card over in in Japan. That card saw Donaire lose to Naoya Inoue, in the WBSS Bantamweight final, and Oubaali beat Naoya's younger brother Takuma Inoue to retain the WBC title. Following those bouts in Japan, and the cancellation of an eliminator featuring Luis Nery who failed to make weight, Donaire was made the mandatory challenger to Oubaali, in what looked like a great bout for early 2020. Before the pandemic left it's mark on the sport's calendar. Despite the long lay off for both men, and the issues of 2020, we'll get to see the two men clash this coming weekend in arguable the best Bantamweight bout currently on the schedule, and one of the most interesting bouts the division has seen in well over a year. It's a bout neither man can afford to lose, and a bout that sets the winner up for a potential unification bout, possible with Naoya Inoue or Johnriel Casimero. So with that back story out of the way how do we see this bout? And what can we say about the two men involved? The defending champion, Oubaali, is a 34 year old southpaw who was a former amateur standout before turning professional in 2014. He started his career well and picked up notable wins over Hiram Irak Diaz, Julio Cesar Miranda, Alejandro Hernandez and Mark Anthony Geraldo in his first on his way to a world title fight. When he finally got his world title shot he beat Rau'shee Warren for the then vacant WBC title, which he has now defended twice, stopping Arthur Villanueva and scoring the aforementioned win over Takuma Inoue in 2019. For a man with just 17 bouts his resume is genuinely solid, not spectacular but really solid. Sadly however for a man who is now in his mid 30's, in a division where most fighters are consider on the slide at the age of 30, his careers underwhelming, and it's clear he will need to not just win here, but rack up other wins to live up to his full potential. In the ring Oubaali is a solid technician. A really good technical boxer, with under-rated power, a surprising physicality, very good speed, sharp punches and good work rate. He is, however, small at the weight, has questionable stamina, and there are perhaps some questions about his durability. To date he's yet to face an actual world class puncher, and he was hurt against Inoue in the later rounds, as Takuma surprisingly made the very competitive late on, despite what the scorecards for that bout suggest. When it comes to Nonito Donaire it's fair to say there it little that hasn't already been said about the Filipino legend and future Hall of Famer. He is a legitimate legend and there is no denying that. Aged 38 Donaire has been there, done that and got the T-shirt. He made his professional debut way back in February 2001, when his first world title in 2007, when he upset Vic Darchinyan, and became one of the few major stars of the lower weight classes. He managed to win world titles at Flyweight, Bantamweight, Super Bantamweight and Featherweight, while scoring notable wins over a who's who, of who. He has beaten Darchinyan, Moruti Mthalane, Raul Martinez, Rafael Concepcion, Hernan Marquez, Volodymyr Sydorenko, Fernando Montiel, Omar Andres Narvaez, Wilfredo Vazquez Jr, Jeffrey Mathebula, Toshiaki Nishioka, Jorge Arce, Simpiwe Vetyeka and Ryan Burnett. Despite picking up losses along the way he has one of the best resumes in the sport today. A truly brilliant resume. In the ring Donaire has changed his style over the years, but some things have remained the same. Over the years he has tried boxing southpaw, and was once very light on his feet, but as he's aged he's become less reliant on his speed, with his legs and footwork both slowing, in fact he's almost a flat-footed fighter. Instead of relying on speed he's relied on his physicality, size, power and strength, and he's a huge Bantamweight. Last year he dwarfed Inoue in their bout and will tower over Oubaali here. He's strong, tough, with a dynamite left hook, a really impressive chin, thunderous jab, good technical skills and excellent timing. Given he's now 38 it's hard to know what he's got left in the tank, but given his performance last time out, against Inoue, there is a feeling he may well have one more big performance left before he calls time on his career. It's hard to know what both men will be bringing to the ring here. Both have been out of the ring for more than 18 months, both old are for Bantamweights and whilst Oubaali is younger it'll be interesting to see how he looks following his legitimate bout with Covid19. At their best it would be almost impossible to favour Oubaali. Even now it's hard to pick the Moroccan born French fighter, who's key advantages are being younger than Donaire and being quicker. We suspect he lacks the fire power to get Donaire's attention, he'll be the much smaller man, he'll have to work incredibly hard to get in and get without eating Donaire's stiff jab and potent left hooks. Especially if he tires again as he did against Takuma Inoue. If a tired Oubaali, perhaps even an Oubaali feeling the effects of his 2020 illness, show up, this could be a very, very tough night for him. That's not to say Oubaali can't win. He could out work and out fiddle Donaire early on, then see out the 12 rounds fighting on the retreat. We can see that happening, but we're not expecting it. Instead we see Oubaali starting well, but tiring through the fight and then being stopped late as the power, size, and strength of Donaire wears him down. Predictionm - TKO10 Donaire. The Minimumweight division over the last 16 months has been frustratingly quiet, with very, very little happening since the start of the Covid19 pandemic. It's been the most among the most frustrating division in the sport with champions being pretty inactive and challengers being inactive, forcing the division to almost stand still at times.
We get the the WBC title and the IBF title have changed hands since the start of 2020 but since the start of 2020 we have only seen two IBF title fights a single WBC, WBA "super", WBO and WBA "Regular" title fight. That's at world level. We have also seen just a single Japanese title fight and single Japanese Youth Youth title fight in the division. And we've also had no bouts for the OPBF or WBO Asia Pacific titles showing just how frustrated the division has become in the pandemic era. Thankfully it seems like this could be set to change through what's left of 2021 and the division might finally begin to come alive. Kicking off the potential revival of the Minimumweight division we'll see world title action this coming Saturday as WBA "super" champion Knockout CP Freshmart (21-0, 7) defends his title against fellow Thai Pongsaklek Sithdabnij (23-6-1, 13). This is a rare "Bloodline Battle", a world title bout between two Thais, and sadly it looks like a massive down grade from the last one, which incidentally saw Panya Pradabsri dethrone Wanheng Menayothin for the WBC title. Unlike that bout however, there will be significantly less international interest here, and very, very few will give the under-dog any kind of a chance. At all. The unbeaten 30 year old champion, also known as Thammanoon Niyomtrong, has held some version of the WBA Minimumweight title since beating Carlos Buitrago in October 2014, for the "interim" title. Back that he was an exciting unbeaten hopeful stepping up his competition quickly, and looked like a breath of fresh air, with a unique fighting name. Since then he has claimed the WBA "regular" and "super" titles and become one of the few foundations for which the division has been built around, along with Wanheng. Sadly though he's also proven to be a very frustrating fighter to follow and someone who is lacking that extra gear, or may more exactly lacking the willingness to move into that top gear. In many ways he's of the same mentality, although different style, to Dmitry Bivol. It's clear he's talented but as long as he's winning he doesn't care about the style in which he wins. Knockout is a talented fighter, he's a clean puncher, he's got solid defense, a good ring IQ and he knows his way around the ring. There is no denying his talent. This guy can box. Sadly though he's not very exciting. He lacks power, he lacks tenacity and work rate, and seems to also struggle with stamina. He keeps a predictable pace through much of the bout, coming alive early on, and controlling behind his under-rated foot and clean counter puncher. Earlier in his career he was much more exciting, but seems to have willingly tuned that down to fight safely, and to just defend his title, without creating any fuss or drama. In fact the most drama his recent bouts have had came from when ArAr Andales took the fight to him and we went to the scorecards early due to a cut. That fight aside there been no drama in a Knockout bout for years. Again that's not to say the champion can't fight, he can. He's beaten Byron Rojas twice, Carlos Buitrago twice, Rey Loreto, Toto Landero and Xiong Zhao Zhong. He's just not exciting. Pongsaklek Sithdabnij, also known as Siridech Deebook, is a 28 year old fighter who really isn't too well known. In fact fans who don't follow boxing outside of Asia will almost certainly know nothing about him, other than that he has taken the fighting name of a former Flyweight great, And there's good reason for that. There's not too much to talk about when it comes to Pongsaklek, despite managing to turn his career around, massively, he's not really proven himself as being ready for a world title fight. In fact he's almost certainly getting this fight due to Covid19 restrictions regarding travel in and out of Thailand. The challenger debuted in 2009 and began his career with 3 straight losses, and was 0-3-1 after 4 bouts. Following that stumble he managed to find his groove in 2015, including a major upset over the then 22-0 Kongfah Nakornluang, winning 11 in a row to get his career going. Since then things haven't been plain sailing however and he's gone 12-3, losing to Yudel Reyes, Kompayak Porpramook and Marco John Rementizo. Not exactly Murderers' Row. He has also struggled in other bouts, narrowly over-coming Kompayak in a rematch, limping past Romshane Sarguilla, and edging a bout with Seksan Khumdee. Again not exactly the competition of an upcoming world title challenger. In the ring Pongsaklek is the type of fighter who looks like he's always doubting himself. He's not quick, sharp, powerful or particularly polished. He's young and hungry but lacks the tools to really dominate fights. Against Kompayak for example, he was lucky the former world champion was heading towards his 40's. He doesn't throw a lot unless he absolutely needs to, he doesn't look confident and he certainly doesn't have fight changing power. Notably he has fought at Flyweight in the past, and is going to be big at Minimumweight, but he's not shown himself to be someone who uses his size well. When he does get more aggressive, and to his credit he can dig deep and up his work rate, he looks very sloppy and doesn't have that clean, crisp quality to his punches that we want to see at world level. He's just, sadly, very average in pretty much every way. Given what we've seen from both men we expect Knockout to start well, take control early and then simply out box Pongsaklek, who will look to move through the gears, but will be sloppy in his offense, will be left chasing Knockout a lot, and will be countered, tied up and hitting the air a lot in the second half of the bout. Although this is a world title bout at 105lbs between two Thai's we're not expecting a great fight. We are expecting a bit of a sloppy, dull, clear decision for the champion, who needs a run out after more than a year of inactivity. Prediction - UD12 Knockout CP Freshmart The growth of the DAZN service as a distribution network for boxing is still something of a work in progress, and there are still a lot of areas where the service needs to improve, with the commentary being one of the most notable. Despite that the service has been fantastic for a number of reasons, and one of those is the fact the service seems to have taken a very clear interest in picking up fighters from the lower weight classes. In the last 12 months alone we have seen 3 of the 4 Light Flyweight world champions compete on the service and that is something that we didn't expect to see, but something we're really happy about. Finally a major outlet is shining a light on one of the most over-looked divisions in the sport.
DAZN's foray into the Light Flyweight division saw IBF champion Felix Alvarado beat the fight out of Deejay Kriel in January and saw WBA "Super" champion Hiroto Kyoguchi defeat Axel Aragon Vega in a brilliant tear up in March. On May 8th we get the chance to see another champion, this time WBO champion Elwin Soto (18-1, 12) in action as he takes on Japanese veteran Katsunari Takayama (32-8-0-1, 12). Like the two other two recent bouts in the division this could end up being a really brutal and thrilling bout between two men at very different stages of their careers. Of the two men American audiences will likely be more familiar with Soto, especially newer fans to the sport. Soto won his WBO title on American soil when he stopped Angel Acosta, in his US debut, and has since defended the title twice, both in the US, with decision wins over Edward Heno and Carlos Buitrago. In his title win he looked talented, but flawed, and was struggling with stamina late in the bout, until hurting Acosta, who had been dropped in round 3, and forcing a controversial 12th round finish. Since then he has again looked more like a youngster who is growing into being a champion, rather than someone close to being the complete product, with both of his defenses leaving plenty to be desired. And whilst that sounds negative, the reality is that Soto seems like the sort of fighter who maybe won a world title before he was really ready for it, and needs to take another year or two to mature into the fighter he will become. Although not the complete article yet Soto is still a monster. He's got huge power, an impressive chin, an an economical style. He presses forward, he's strong and tough and is still really rounding off his boxing skillset fight by fight. Although still improving Soto is slow of foot, sometimes a bit too methodical, and happy to come forward behind a tight guard rather than letting shots fly. A very stark comparison to the likes of Kyoguchi and Alvarado. He looks easier to outbox than the other two, due to not working as much, but is just as dangerous and strong as the other two, and arguably has the biggest upside given his young age. Although we have been impressed by Soto at times, it is worth noting that faltering Carlos Buitrago ran him a lot closer than the scores cards suggest, and Edward Heno also gave him a very tough bout. He's the type of fighter who, against someone with a lot of quick movement will struggle to shine. If you're a long term fan of the lower weights Katsunari Takayama needs no introduction at all. However it's fair to say that most fight fans aren't long term watches of the lowest weights and have sadly missed out on the career of the "Lighting Kid" who is now edging towards his 38th birthday and is not the fighter he used to be. At his best he was a whirring dervish of activity, willing to skip around the ring, let shots go in bunches, and use a lot of in and out movement, without too much worry of what was coming his way. He had a brilliant chin and could rely on it when he needed to, and was able to stand and trade when he wanted. His style made for some brilliant bouts against the likes of Yutaka Niida, Francisco Rodrgiuez Jr, Fahlan Sakkreerin Jr and Jose Argumedo among others. He was also a serial belt collector winning the WBC, the WBA interim title and the WBO and IBF titles, twice. All at Minimumweight. Sadly it's hard to know just how good he is going to be at Light Flyweight. The bigger issue for Takayama isn't so much the move up in weight, he did fight at Light Flyweight early in his career, but instead his skin. During his career the accumulated punishment has left his skin very paper like, and he has been cut numerous times during the later part of his career. In fact 3 of his last 5 bouts have ended via technical decision, dating back more than 5 years. Aged 37, moving up in weight, with paper skin, taking on a big puncher, things don't look good for Takayama. Saying all that however Takayama hasn't taken much punishment recently. In 2016 he retired before chasing a place at the Olympics. He failed in his pursuit for a Tokyo 2020 place and returned to professional boxing last year, putting on a brilliant performance against former 2-time world challenger, at Light Flyweight, Reiya Konishi. That bout showed that Takayama still has his legs and output to go, at least for 6 rounds, though of course it's a very different proposition over 12 rounds against a big puncher like Soto. At his best Takayama would have been a stylistic nightmare for Soto. His non stop movement, ability to take a shot and high output would have been a very tough assignment for a man like Soto, who is powerful but low activity and slow of foot. This current version of Takayama however is a very different kettle of fish, and we're really not sure if Takayama's face can hold hold up or whether his legs can go 12 rounds. We would genuine love to see Takayama win. It would be one final chapter in a career that has been amazing to follow and really seen him tread a track rarely seen by a Japanese fighter, as he actively pursued IBF and WBO titles. The reality however is that father time and a long career has probably left Takayama with only a slim chance here. Our expectation is that Takayama starts well, uses his feet, and stops Soto from getting set, and getting his shots off. Using a tactic similar to what Carlos Buitrago did, but busier. As the fight goes on however the power and physical strength of Soto will take over and Mexican will leave Takayama busted open and force the doctor to wave off the bout. The real question, for us, is what will cause those cuts, and when will the bout be stopped? Takayama has been involved in head clashes and if one of those occurs it would be a surprise, at all, to see a technical decision here. On the other hand Soto is a big puncher and there's a real chance that his punches will bust up Takayama and force a stoppage. Prior to the end we expect Takayama to set a high pace, at least early on, and force Soto to fight at a much higher tempo than usual. We expect a lot of leather to be thrown here and for the bout to be, yet another, fantastic Light Flyweight action bout. Expect regular exchanges, with Soto landing the heavier blows and Takayama landing at a high volume. Sadly though it's hard to see the bout ending in any other way, other than Takayama wearing a crimson mask. For gamblers out there, Takayama by technical decision might be worth a shot, but a slim one. For everyone else, the obvious outcome is Soto by TKO, and that's the one we'll be picking. Prediction - TKO9 Soto (cuts) Over the last few years we have had some real frustrations at Light Heavyweight, where we have a lot of potentially interesting match ups to be made. Sadly however the bouts to define the division hasn't taken place, and instead two main fighters in the division have haf major issues securing the career defining bout they need. One of those is the much avoided Artur Beterbiev, who punches like a truck and has long been avoided, and the other is Dmitry Bivol (17-0, 11), who is skilled but lacks in terms drawing power and excitement.
Bivol has been the WBA "Super" champion for several years now, and has a string of good victories to his name, including the likes of Sullivan Barrera, Jean Pascal and Joe Smith Jr, but has failed to land a massive monster fight. That wait for a career defining bout will need to continue, but thankfully he is in action on May 1st as he looks to keep his WBA "Super" title and his unbeaten record in tact. Sadly though his up coming defense is certainly not one to get the pulse racing. Instead of sharing the ring with a leading divisional fighter he'll be up against Englishman Craig Richards (16-1-1, 9). The talented Bivol, who was born in Kyrgyzstan and now fights out of Russia, is one of the most technically correct boxers in the Light Heavyweight division and also, potentially, the biggest threat to Saul "Canelo" Alvarez. In fact Bivol has repeatedly offered himself as a potential "Canelo" opponent and offered to drop to Super Middleweight for that bout. Whilst technically very skilled he is, somewhat boring to watch and that seems to be something that he doesn't care about. He's happier to win a dull decision, boxing his way for 12 rounds, and controlling every minute of the bout than to take any risks and give fans anything exciting and memorable. In terms of quality few match Bivol. He's got a brilliant jab, his understanding of the ring is top notch, he moves around the ring with a lot of ease and sets a high out put. But he keeps everything pretty much the same. He'll set the table with his jab, and then look to follow through with the occasional power shot, all at range. On the inside he holds, forces the referee to reset, and does the same in an attempt to keep the bout being fought as his bout. There is next to no drama in his bouts, which is a shame as early on he was exciting and fought like a man with a point to prove. He began his career 13-0 (11), but recently has been putting on controlled, but dominant displays against some very decent, but unspectacular, competition. His challenger is much less well known and much less proven. In fact fans outside of the UK probably haven't seen too much of the 30 year old Richards, who has fought all 18 of his bouts in the UK. As with nay British fighters guys early career was relatively unremarkable, with fights against a string of limited journeymen, though his did show enough to be moved towards bigger and better domestic fights, fighting for the British title in his 11th bout. That was a huge step up, against Frank Buglioni, and he gave a really good account of himself, despite losing. Since then he has gone unbeaten, won the British title and proven himself as a solid domestic level fighter. Of course the step up from British level to world level is huge, and despite winning the British title there's still a fair argument that he's only the 5th best in the UK. Before we get on to Richard's style we will quickly discuss the British Light Heavyweight scene, which is even more frustrating than the global scene. The UK has 5 very good Light Heavyweights. Callum Johnson, Josgua Buatsi, Lydon Arthur, Anthony Yarde and Craig Richards. From those 5 men we've only had one bout between two of them, and that only came last year. We've also seen two of the fighters fight for world titles, and soon to be 3, without any of them proving they are the best domestically. The division, domestically, has so much talent and potential, but politics has really left things feeling underwhelming. In the ring Richards is a big, tall, rangy fighter. He looks incredibly relaxed and calm in the ring and has real patience behind his work. He's not the quickest, but he is a smart fighter, and a smart, tall fight can be a nightmare for anyone. His footwork is solid, and he uses it will to create distance, but he's not the quickest on his feet. What he does really well is he allows bouts to be fought at a slow pace. He's not an exciting fighter, he's not a fun fighter to watch, but he's technically very solid, with a sharp jab, good counter punching and he applies very intelligent pressure, without taking risks. He's physically imposing and that allows him to pressure in the way he does. Although certainly not a puncher he does have some sting on his shots and his TKO of Shakan Pitters last year was very impressive. Sadly for Richards this is a monster step up and we think that the step up will be far, far, far too much for him. His patient pressure style has success at domestic level, but we can't see that carrying up to world level, especially not against someone as skilled, strong and focused as Bivol. We expect to see Richards have some moments early on. He's awkward enough to have some success. But as the rounds go on and the tock ticks away Bivol will get a read on his man, then begin to break him down, grind away at him, and, eventually, beat him into submission. In fact we wouldn't be surprised at all if Bivol manages to score his first stoppage in 3 years and ends a 4 fights decision win. Prediction - TKO9 Bivol In 2020 we expect to see a lot of long running saga's come to an end, such as the recent over-due IBF Super Flyweight mandatory title fight between Jerwin Ancajas v Jonathan Javier Rodriguez and the on going WBC Bantamweight title situation between Nordine Oubaali and Nonito Donaire, which was ordered in 2019. Perhaps now saga, however, is quite like the one between Kenshiro Teraji (17-0, 10) and Tetsuya Hisada (34-10-2, 20), which is now set to take place around 4 years after it was first scheduled! And for honours much, much higher than it would have been for the first time around! For those who haven't followed the Japanese scene until very recently this bout was originally pencilled when Kenshiro was the Japanese and OPBF Light Flyweight champion, and was supposed to be a mandatory of the Japanese title, as part of the Champion Carnival in 2017. The bout was cancelled at short notice when Kenshiro was able to secure a WBC world title fight with Ganigan Lopez, which he went on to win via majority decision. Whilst Kenshiro became a world champion things didn't stand still for Hisada who ended up beating Kenichi Horikawa in a bloody battle, marred by repeated headclashes, to win the Japanese title and worked his way into a WBA world title fight in 2019 with Hiroto Kyoguchi, losing a competitive decision to Kyoguchi. If that was chapter 1 in the "Kenshiro Vs Hisada rivalry", and if that ended well for both parties, chapter 2 was a little bit different. The men were to fight late last year, with the bout essentially the worst kept secret in Japanese boxing. It however fell apart weeks before it supposed to take place after news revealed Kenshiro has been involved in a drunken incident that resulted in him being suspended by the JBC. That left a sour taste in the mouth of Hisada and saw some fans question the behaviour of Kenshiro, who in had committed his drunk acts in the summer, well before the bout was supposed to take place but the act hadn't come to light until much later. Now, with more than 4 years history between the two men, but no bouts, we are now, finally, set to see the two men face off. Of the two fighters it's Kenshiro, the current and long reigning WBC Light Flyweight champion, who is the much more well known fighter. The baby faced 29 year old is one of the longest reigning active world champions in the sport, having held his title since 2017 and running up 7 defenses. He is from a boxing family, with his father Hisashi being a former Japanese and OPBF champion, and he looks a natural in the ring. Though that should be little surprise for a fighter who was a good amateur and seemed for success when he turned professional in 2014. In the professional ranks he has been moved aggressively but smartly, and won WBC Youth, Japanese and OPBF titles before taking the WBC title in 2017. Since winning his world title he has moved from strength to strength and has visibly grown as a fighter since winning the belt in his 10th professional bout. Kenshiro is, unlike many active Light Flyweights, a boxer first and foremost, with a style that is based around his speed, movement, and jab, rather than his power and physicality, like many of the top guys in the division. He looks to set the tone with his foot work and jab, picking holes in opponents defenses, making them make errors to counter. He has one of the most under-rated jabs in the sport, with it being quick, sharp and accurate, and also some of the over-looked punch picking of any active fighter. He picks his shots well, whether he's on the front foot or back foot. Given his record, and style, it would be fair to assume he lacked power, but that isn't true and he has stopped 5 of his last 6, Ganigan Lopez, Milan Melindo, Jonathan Taconing and Randy Petalcorin. He can punch, but he doesn't base his style around that power, rather allowing that power to aid his boxing. Aged 36 Tetsuya Hisada is a true veteran of the sport. With 46 professional bouts to his name is among the most experienced active Japanese fighters and his career dates all the way back to 2003, when he was still a teenager. His record, on paper, isn't all that impressive, but like a fine wine Hisada bloomed late into his career, as he finally found the weight that was suitable for him, a style that worked for him, and gained the experienced he needed to become a success. Proof of that can be seen by looking at Hisada's career after 32 professional bouts. At that point he was aged 30 at the time and was sporting a record of 21-9-2 (11). Since then he has gone 13-1, with his only loss coming in a hotly contest bout with Hiroto Kyoguchi. It's also not like he was padding his record either, instead he beat the likes of Shun Kosaka, who came runner up in the 2014 All Japan Rookie of the Year, Hayato Yamaguchi, who was was a former Japanese title challenger, Atsushi Kakutani, a former world title challenger, and Kenichi Horikawa, who is currently the OPBF Light Flyweight champion. Many of Hisada's early losses came due to him fighting above his natural weight. He picked a number of losses at Super Flyweight and Flyweight. And a lot of those were close, with 4 split decision losses. In recent years Hisada has settled at Light Flyweight and become of of the more over-looked fighters in the sport. Hisada defies logic. Despite being the wrong side of 30 he appears to have fantastic stamina, fights at a high work rate, throws a lot of leather, but does so in an educated manner. It's clear he uses his experience well, knowing when to go forward and when to back off. Unlike so many fighters who like to come forward he actually uses his jab as a key weapon, and even doubles it up nicely, whilst looking to line up his straight right hand. Despite fighting at a solid tempo Hisada also does some little things very well. He moves his head a lot, applies pressure behind good footwork and has under-rated power, something his record doesn't reflect due to his numerous bouts above his best fighting weight. Sadly though he is ancient for a Light Flyweight, and having been out of the ring since late 2019 we do wonder what ring rust and father time will have done to him. It's also a massive shame Hisada didn't get the big fights until late in his career, something that is understandable given his losses but still a shame given his ability. In this bout we're expecting to see some of the history between the two men come out, and we expect to see a frustrated Hisada looking to start fast, with emotion, anger and a sense of resentment coming out. He's usually a calm, collected character, but he was clearly disappointed last year, and we think some of that will come out here. Sadly for himself that would be a mistake, as Kenshiro will pick him away at any error he makes. Even without the errors this is not a good stylistic match up for Hisada. His pressure works brilliantly against fighters who stay still, or back on to the ropes and don't have the educated feet and counter punching of Kenshiro. Here however he's up against a brilliant counter puncher, a smart mover, and someone who will soak up the pressure, target the counters and look to break him down. Kenshiro will look to use Hisada's strengths against him. For Hisada to win he needs to not only pressure, but also physically bully Kenshiro. His activity is good, but he needs to get the bout on the inside, completely cut the distance, and don't let Kenshiro establish his rhythm. As soon as Kenshiro finds his groove it will be very, very hard for Hisada to work his way into the bout. If Hisada doesn't make a big impact early, in an educated fashion, he will fall a long way behind. Given Kyoguchi wasn't able to stop Hisada the popular view will be that Kenshiro won't be able to. We however feel that Kenshiro will be able to, late on, as he looks to make a statement, and lay down the gauntlet to the other champions. He is talking about wanting to unify and we suspect he'll want to make a big statement here, to do that, he needs to stop Hisada. We are expecting Hisada to come forward early, have mixed success as Kenshiro finds his range, and through the middle rounds Kenshiro will begin to dominate with his counters, before forcing a late stoppage in a complete performance against an excellent, and over-looked, challenger. Prediction - TKO10 Kenshiro (Image credit - Boxingnews.jp - from the announcement of the 2017 Champion Carnival bouts, Kenshiro and Hisada are both in the front line) |
World Title Previews
The biggest fights get broken down as we try to predict who will come out on top in the up coming world title bouts. Archives
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