On paper it looks really good, but the bookies don't seem to agree and instead have Farmer as the clear favourite, pricing the American at around 1/10 to pick up the victory and become the new champion. The American is by far the more naturally skilled fighter and those skills show in the odds of him winning a decision, which is widely priced at 2/5. Although highly skilled Farmer does lack power, and for him to score a stoppage is around 5/2.
Ogawa to win has been as high as 11/1 through much of the week, but is now best priced at 9/1, with some going to 11/2 for the Japanese fighter. Given he's a puncher it's worth noting he's actually 10/1 to win by stoppage, and a huge 33/1 to win a decision.
The draw is also 33/1, suggesting that no one is giving Ogawa any chance to claim a decision.
For those wondering about the other key market, the bout has been priced at 2/5 to go the distance and 2/1 to not go the scheduled 12 rounds.
Related- Preview-Ogawa and Farmer battle for IBF title
(Image by Sumio Yamada)